Finger Lakes’ First Forecast: Tuesday, October 27

Finger Lakes' First Forecast for Oct. 28/29, 2014.
Finger Lakes’ First Forecast for Oct. 28/29, 2014.

Here are this morning’s quick observations:

  • Few changes were made to this forecast from last night. The onset of the showers and thunderstorms may be an hour or so later than my map showed last night.
  • The confidence for Wednesday’s forecast is listed as Medium-High instead of High due to some uncertainty in how many showers will be around. It is possible that most of the area will stay dry.

Check back this evening for a look at the rest of the week, including the snow potential this weekend!

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.) When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making soap, or playing with his two young boys.

2 Responses

  1. James
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    This format is working really well for me. I like the “quick” morning observations followed by a more detailed and reasoned discussion later in the day. I like your prose style, too.

    Just one suggestion for improvement: could you change the label for the “first” forecast, which could be misunderstood by visitors new to your site? The word suggests that a reasonable sequence of second, third, fourth and so on would follow; but you want to work out only two forecasts daily. At first I was understanding “first” as your site’s very first bit of daily business, which happened just a couple weeks ago on Oct 13th when you got the flxweather.com forecast independent of your facebook page. (Congratulations, by the way, it’s well done!) How about calling the “first” forecast of the day your “early” forecast?

    That way, as the early forecast recedes into history, and the day progresses and we get closer in time to our future, which become more predictable because it’s no longer so far ahead, your evening forecast can be presented as a discussion and reasoned explanation of what’s more likely to happen than what you predicted earlier. I’ve long been a fan of the “forecast discussion” product on the National Weather Service’s website, and your texts are much easier to read, written as they are in standard English without all the abbreviations and arcane meteorological jargon. I especially like the way you present “changes” in the earlier forecast, and your clear framing of how confident we can be in forecasts of complicated atmospheric conditions.

    • Ted
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      “Thumbs up” on James’s comments.