My forecast remains generally the same as it did in yesterday’s post. Snow should break out tonight before changing to rain for most of the Finger Lakes Monday morning.
Snowfall amounts should be pretty light as the initial precipitation will be light to moderate at most. The heaviest precipitation will come in during the later morning and afternoon hours, when there should be plenty of warm air to keep the precipitation liquid.
There are a couple of areas that are a bit questionable though. The higher elevations in the southwest Finger Lakes, and especially the western Southern Tier, may be able to hold onto the cold air longer as the storm intensifies to the east. The further west, the better the chance of seeing all snow. Also, the Tug Hill should be able to stay mostly snow throughout the storm. Snowfall amounts in these areas will be the highest, but even there, it shouldn’t be a huge storm.
Snow will turn to rain first across the eastern Southern Tier and southeast Finger Lakes (except some of the higher elevations), followed by the flat-lands south of Lake Ontario and then the rest of the region. This transition should take place near dawn for the eastern areas and by mid-morning further north and west. There may be a little sleet or even freezing rain during this transition, but it should be very brief if it occurs at all.
Half an inch of rain or more can be expected as the heavier precipitation moves in for the afternoon.
As for the morning commute, there will likely be some sloppy spots, but I do not think it will be too horrible. Slow down and give yourself a little extra time, and check flxweather.com, or my Facebook and Twitter feeds before you head out the door for the latest updates.