Complex, long duration winter weather event starts Sunday

A complex storm system will bring wintry weather to the Finger Lakes Sunday and Monday. Southern portions of the region may see ice and rain Sunday and Sunday night before precipitation changes to snow on Monday. Heavy snow is possible Monday, especially for the eastern Finger Lakes. Confidence remains low in the exact location of the mixed precipitation.
A complex storm system will bring wintry weather to the Finger Lakes Sunday and Monday. Southern portions of the region may see ice and rain Sunday and Sunday night before precipitation changes to snow on Monday. Heavy snow is possible Monday, especially for the eastern Finger Lakes. Confidence remains low in the exact location of the mixed precipitation.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the entire Finger Lakes region as a complex storm system makes its way towards us as early as Sunday morning.

Before this storm system even arrives, snow is like on Saturday as the first in a series of bundles of atmospheric energy move through. A couple inches of snow is possible, mostly during the morning and early afternoon hours.

Another bundle of energy will move through overnight, with a couple more inches, especially for the northern Finger Lakes.

These bundle of energy will be moving along a front that will stall out over the Finger Lakes. A more impressive bundle of energy will move in on Sunday for the first part of the storm.

The position of the front will ultimately determine where the precipitation stays all snow, where it changes over to rain, and where the narrow band of icy mixed precipitation is in between. Widespread significant icing should not be too significant, but some localized areas could see a tenth of an inch of ice or more.

Gradually, low pressure will move across Ohio and Pennsylvania before becoming stronger off the east coast. As it passes by, colder air will wrap in behind the system, changing the precipitation to all snow across the area by Monday morning.

Some heavy snow is possible throughout the day on Monday, especially east of Seneca Lake.

This event has very low confidence. Large variations in weather conditions, and final snow amounts, are possible over short distances. The slightest movement in the storm track will have major impacts on snow totals. There are uncertainties in the track both as it moves east across Pennsylvania and as it strengthens off the east coast.

A track further north across Pennsylvania and then further east off the coast would result in less snow across the region. A track further south, and then further west, could bring heavy snow to a greater portion of the region.

I would also like to stress the impacts of this storm. The snow is going to be wet and heavy- NOT fluffy like the last few events. This make clearing the snow extremely difficult, as most of us now have very high snow banks. PLEASE be careful shoveling this snow and take frequent breaks.

Furthermore, the heavy snow will only add to the weight roofs and decks are bearing from all of the recent snow. If you are able to do so safely, removing snow from decks and roofs is recommended before this storm arrives later Sunday morning.

This storm will taper off from west to east during the day on Monday, but some areas of the eastern Finger Lakes and east of I-81 may continue to see snow into Monday evening.

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.) When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making soap, or playing with his two young boys.

2 Responses

  1. Linda Competillo
    |

    Hey Drew…Do you have any updates yet…particularly for tonight?

  2. Jan Gaudette
    |

    what does “low confidence” mean in the meteorological world?