Check out these noontime temperatures from around the Finger Lakes (click the image to make it bigger). The battle between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south is intense, with a 10-20º temperature change over a span of 20-30 miles.
This is a great illustration showing how complex this system is and why confidence has been low leading up to this storm.
Precipitation in the last hour has started to break out along this battle ground and will continue to increase in intensity and coverage through the afternoon.
What is the temperature where you live? Are you seeing precipitation yet? What type? Leave a comment!