Monday afternoon severe thunderstorm forecast

The Finger Lakes region could see a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon as a disturbance interacts with another hot and humid afternoon.
The Finger Lakes region could see a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon as a disturbance interacts with another hot and humid day.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon across the Finger Lakes, a few of which could become strong to severe.The overall classification today is ‘low’, which is the second threat level on the Finger Lakes Weather Severe Thunderstorm Scale. A ‘low’ classification means that a couple of storms will likely require severe thunderstorm warnings, resulting in some localized pockets of large hail and strong winds.

A more widespread threat, or more intense severe weather would be needed to result in an elevated risk level. At this time, I think the coverage of severe weather will be too localized to go to the enhanced level, but I will be monitoring trends this afternoon in case more intense severe weather looks possible.

Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats today. Hail stones could grow to over 1.5″, and some localized areas could see winds as strong as 70mph. The tornado threat is very low today, but it is not completely non-existent.

This afternoon’s thunderstorms will be caused by a disturbance that will move into western New York along a frontal boundary. This front will push a bit further north than its morning position roughly along I-90, resulting in another hot and humid day across all of the Finger Lakes. Before any thunderstorms form, temperatures will once again push into the mid and upper 80s.

After yesterday’s thunderstorms over-performed, in both coverage and intensity, and with so much heat and humidity in place, an upgrade to elevated could be warranted for a small area, especially over the central and eastern Finger Lakes.

For those familiar with the Storm Prediction Center ratings- at the time of this post, the SPC had us in a ‘marginal’ threat. To compare my forecast with theirs, my forecast is calling for a more robust severe potential.

Thunderstorms are most likely during the late afternoon hours, with some additional showers and rumbles of thunder overnight. Tuesday may be a bit showery, but severe weather is not expected.

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.).

When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making goat milk soap, running until his legs burn, or playing with his three young boys.