First look at Saturday’s severe, flood risks for FLX

Thunderstorms will become widespread later Saturday, possibly with a few reaching severe levels. Flash flooding could also become a problem for a few locations.
Thunderstorms will become widespread later Saturday, possibly with a few reaching severe levels. Flash flooding could also become a problem for a few locations.

A hot and humid airmass is settling into the Finger Lakes, setting the stage for a stormy Saturday as a cold front approaches.

Friday will be the day of transition. Southerly winds will set up over the eastern part of the nation, transporting warm, very moist air northward. Temperatures should easily rise into the low 80s today, with some locations reaching the mid 80s. The humidity will not be unbearable, but it will be noticeably more than on Thursday.

The weather should remain calm on Friday though, with the first chances of precipitation popping up this evening, mostly over the western Finger Lakes. Most areas will probably stay dry into Saturday morning.

After overnight lows in the mid and upper 60s, temperatures will quickly rise Saturday morning. It is looking a bit more likely that Saturday morning will have some sun and fewer showers, which will only help to destabilize the atmosphere.

By early afternoon, most places should be in the mid and upper 80s. By mid afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will start to develop and become widespread by late afternoon. A few of these storms could be severe, with damaging winds the primary risk. The overall severe classification is ‘LOW’, which is the second of five levels on my Finger Lakes specific severe weather scale. A LOW classification means most areas will not see severe weather, but a few locations may see some intense storms capable of producing some damage.

Along with the severe threat will be a flash flooding threat, which is also classified as low. Widespread flooding is not expected, but with so much moisture in the atmosphere, any areas that see slow moving or multiple storms could quickly pick up a couple of inches of rain.

Additional rain is likely Saturday night and/or early Sunday as the cold front pushes south slowly. A widespread, soaking rain will accompany the front, which could, of course, extend the localized flooding risk.

Much colder air will move in for Sunday, with highs stuck in the 50s, or even colder if the rain sticks around longer.

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.) When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making soap, or playing with his two young boys.