A very moist air mass is being transported into the Finger Lakes between high pressure of the New England coast and low pressure north of the Great Lakes.
A cold front extends southwest from the low pressure with a warm front extending east, situating itself just north of our region. This places is in the unabated flow of rich moisture.
As the cold front slowly drifts east, areas of rain and thunderstorms will track northeast out of the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast, including the Finger Lakes. Rain will be possible at any time today, though the best chance for excessive rain will be from this afternoon into the evening.
Clouds and showers this morning will keep temperatures in the low 70s, reducing our severe thunderstorm threat. A stronger storm with some gusty winds or small hail cannot be ruled out, but the severe threat will be greater across extreme southeast New York and eastern Pennsylvania, where a couple of tornadoes may even be possible.
Flash flooding is certainly a concern for our area though. Widespread rain totals of 1-2″ will be possible, with isolated pockets getting possibly much more. It will be in these isolated pockets where flash flooding could become a problem.
Please continue to monitor conditions this afternoon and evening.