Most of Wednesday will be quiet with a mix of sun and clouds and warm temperatures. A brief shower may be possible in the afternoon, but rain is more likely this evening as a cold front approaches.
A line of thunderstorms may develop along this front over southern Ontario during the late afternoon hours before dropping southeast into western New York this evening. There will be a narrow window of opportunity for these storms to develop and become severe, relative both to the atmospheric conditions and the time of day.
A narrow ribbon of warm, moist air and conditions ripe for thunderstorms will move northeast across parts of the area just ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms will likely develop in this environment over southern Ontario during the late afternoon hours. Damaging winds, hail and maybe a tornado will be possible with the storms in Canada as they form a broken line and move towards western New York this evening. Those same threats may exist into the early evening hours as the storms move across western New York, but the storms will dissipate rather quickly as they move east into a less favorable environment that will become even more hostile to thunderstorms as the evening turns into the night.
The main uncertainties with today’s severe weather threat is how widespread the storms are as they enter into western New York and how long they can maintain their strength. There are some variations in the short term, high resolution models on the evolution of these storms, Check back this evening for an update.
The rest of Wednesday should be fairly nice. There is a band of showers over Michigan this morning that may bring a brief period of clouds and showers during the early to mid afternoon across the region, but this would be short lived if it even survives its trip to our region. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds should be expected with highs around 80º.
We should get a break from thunderstorms and severe weather on Thursday.