Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin continues to lash the Bahamas Friday with 130 mph winds. The strength of Joaquin will fluctuate over the next day or so as the storm undergoes internal processes common in powerful hurricanes. Joaquin is now drifting northwest and will turn more northeasterly over the next day or two.
Most forecast models are now in good agreement that Joaquin will take the general path outlined by the European computer model for days. The European forecast itself has come a bit further west, placing the path between Scenario 1 & 2 that I outlined yesterday, but much closer to Scenario 1.
A separate storm system is diving into the Southeastern US. With high pressure to the north, and Joaquin to the southeast, this storm has plenty of Atlantic moisture to work with, and the resulting moist east wind has widespread rain from southern New England to the Southeast. This is not directly from Joaquin, but will still cause problems of flooding and beach erosion further south.
The Southern Tier of New York, as well as the southern parts of the Finger Lakes, may get clipped by a bit of this rain on Friday night and Saturday. This rain, if it makes it this far north, would be light and showery, but will be enough to hold temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s for highs.
There should be a lesser chance for a couple showers on Sunday, with most of the area staying dry. Highs Sunday will be a bit warmer, with low 60s in the afternoon.
Much of next week looks quiet with temperatures fairly close to normal for early October, with highs most days in the 60s.