A picture perfect fall day is in store for the Finger Lakes on Monday, with bright sunshine and warm temperatures.
A persistent south wind and a nearly complete lack of clouds will combine for excellent weather across the Finger Lakes for Columbus Day.
Temperatures this afternoon should climb above 70 degrees, with some areas in the northern Finger Lakes reaching into the mid 70s.This is about 15 degrees above normal, but shy of record highs for most of the region.
Those fortunate enough to have the day off should take advantage of the weather, as our chances for weather like this continue to dwindle.
A cold front will race east towards the Finger Lakes today and tonight, with showers entering the Finger Lakes a bit before dawn on Tuesday. Showers will continue into the morning hours as the front pushes through. The majority of the rain with this front will be light, but some scattered showers could persist into Wednesday.
Temperatures on Tuesday will likely still manage to get above 60 degrees, if even only for a brief time later in the morning or early in the afternoon. However, Wednesday’s high temperatures should be stuck in the mid 50s at most. Low temperatures Thursday morning should be in the upper 30s and low 40s across the area.
Another front will plow through the Finger Lakes on Friday. Heavier rain and strong winds are possible with this system, along with some very chilly air for the weekend. Some forecasts for the region will probably jump all over the hints of snow shown in the models, but I am skeptical that any flakes will fly quite yet.
The computer models are often overly aggressive with snow early in the season due to a poor handling of the strength of the sun and the impact the warm surface of the earth has on the lower atmosphere- especially given how warm it has been over the last 6-8 weeks. Don’t buy the snow hype- we will have plenty of time for snow in the coming months.