Low pressure will track over the Finger Lakes tonight, keeping temperatures warm enough for mostly rain, and keeping heavy precipitation away.
Any sun early Tuesday morning will be replaced with cloudy skies as the storm system moves northeast towards the southern Great Lakes. A brief shower is not out of the question around midday today, but most of the region will remain dry during the daylight hours.
Warm air ahead of this system and cool air from high pressure to the north will create some varying temperatures today. Areas across the Southern Tier will soar well into the mid and even upper 40s. Meanwhile, closer to Lake Ontario, temperatures will only be in the mid 30s today. Most of the Finger Lakes will range from the upper 30s to low 40s.
Temperatures will begin to rise into the low 40s this evening as precipitation starts to move in. Mixed precipitation should be limited to areas near Rochester and Batavia and west, but even here, most of the precipitation will fall as rain. For the rest of the Finger Lakes, just rain is expected.
Some gusty winds may be possible at times tonight as well, but the atmospheric conditions do not look favorable for bringing very strong winds gusts down to the surface.
With the center of the storm tracking over the Finger Lakes, precipitation amounts should be relatively light. Most areas will probably only see about a quarter inch of rain, with slightly more back towards Rochester. Most of this may fall in a single band that crosses the region roughly around midnight. A rumble of thunder or two is not out of the question as well.
Cold air will make its way back in from west to east after midnight. A quick drop from the 40s to the 20s is expected, and the entire region should be cold enough for snow by dawn Wednesday. However, the vast majority of the precipitation behind the system will track north into Canada, with only a brief period of light snow and some flurries for the Finger Lakes. Most places will probably only see an inch of accumulation, if even that.
Most of Wednesday will therefore end up dry and quiet, with temperatures remaining in the 20s. A little limited lake effect will try to develop Wednesday night, but the air will be pretty dry so there will probably not be much in the way of accumulations.
Thursday and Friday are looking quiet, with temperatures Thursday in the 20s and highs near 30 degrees on Friday. Temperatures will be near average this weekend with a few showers or flurries on Sunday, but much warmer weather may be in store for next week.