Thunderstorms may be possible Thursday afternoon as very humid air pushes northeast towards the Finger Lakes.
The shading on this morning’s weather map is the dew point. The blues and darker greens are dew points that are still relatively comfortable- mostly 50s and low 60s. As the greens lighten and turn towards yellow, the air is increasingly humid.
A stalled out front will also lift through the region as a warm front today. An extension of this front, not shown well on the map this morning, extends north to south across Lake Erie and eastern Ohio along the leading edge of the very soupy air.
These features will act as trigger mechanisms today as the humidity begins to increase and temperatures again push well into the 80s. It seems more likely than not, therefore, that at least a couple showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon.
Given the subtle nature of the this weather set up, the coverage of the storms is a bit uncertain. We should see some activity start to pop around 2pm, but the best chance for rain will be from about 5-8 pm. Severe weather is not expected, but a couple stronger storms aren’t out of the question.
Behind this front, heat and humidity will pour into the Finger Lakes. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s both Friday and Sunday, with many places hitting 90 degrees on Saturday. The humidity will be oppressive, making it feel like the mid to upper 90s on Saturday and possibly Sunday.
Remember to keep cool, stay hydrated, check in on the elderly and take care of your pets! This heat will be dangerous, especially since we have had such a rapid transition to hot weather. Remember- it snowed less than two weeks ago!
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible through Monday. There does not seem to be much to trigger storms on Friday or Saturday, but at least a few may still fire up due to subtle, topographical induced trigger mechanisms. Sunday looks to have a better chance for storms, which could continue into the overnight hours and early Monday.
It is possible that Monday afternoon will be mostly dry, and less humid, with highs in the upper 70s. Pleasant weather will settle in for much of next week.