Some severe threat Sunday

image
The Storm Prediction Center has the Finger Lakes under a marginal threat for severe storms on Sunday, but the threat could be raised to slight in the future.

The Storm Prediction Center has the Finger Lakes in a marginal risk for severe storms on Sunday.

However, I expect, and the SPC has mentioned the possibility of increasing the threat level to slight.

Rain will move in tonight ahead of a warm front. Showers after dark will become more widespread and heavier after midnight, lingering into Sunday morning.

The main factor in determining the severe threat for Sunday will be how quickly this rain departs in the morning.

If the rain lingers and keeps our region cool, afternoon thunderstorms will be limited and weaker.

However, if the warm front pushed through and the sun comes up, temperatures  could quickly warm well into the 70s, creating an unstable atmosphere capable of producing thunderstorms.

At this time, my feeling is that roughly the southeastern half of the Finger Lakes has the best chance for some stronger storms.

I am skeptical that we will have a widespread severe event on Sunday, but some scattered strong to severe storms may be possible. Wind damage is probably the primary threat, along with torrential rain. Some hail may be possible, and an isolated tornado wouldn’t be out of the question either.

The forecast should start to become more clear by the mid to late morning tomorrow. I will have an update around 10 am, so make sure to check back then.

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.).

When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making goat milk soap, running until his legs burn, or playing with his three young boys.

2 Responses

  1. Ellen
    |

    Weather Sunday for Tags concert starts 6 pm

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      If storms develop, they will probably be scattered. Should know a bit more tomorrow.