The Storm Prediction Center has the Finger Lakes in a marginal risk for severe storms on Sunday.
However, I expect, and the SPC has mentioned the possibility of increasing the threat level to slight.
Rain will move in tonight ahead of a warm front. Showers after dark will become more widespread and heavier after midnight, lingering into Sunday morning.
The main factor in determining the severe threat for Sunday will be how quickly this rain departs in the morning.
If the rain lingers and keeps our region cool, afternoon thunderstorms will be limited and weaker.
However, if the warm front pushed through and the sun comes up, temperatures could quickly warm well into the 70s, creating an unstable atmosphere capable of producing thunderstorms.
At this time, my feeling is that roughly the southeastern half of the Finger Lakes has the best chance for some stronger storms.
I am skeptical that we will have a widespread severe event on Sunday, but some scattered strong to severe storms may be possible. Wind damage is probably the primary threat, along with torrential rain. Some hail may be possible, and an isolated tornado wouldn’t be out of the question either.
The forecast should start to become more clear by the mid to late morning tomorrow. I will have an update around 10 am, so make sure to check back then.