Showers will develop this afternoon. A few storms will be possible with small hail and gusty winds, mostly over the eastern Finger Lakes.
Subtle disturbances are rotating around the large, stalled out area of low pressure north of the region. One of these disturbances is moving over New England, heading away from the Finger Lakes. A second disturbance over Michigan will make its way into the Finger Lakes during the afternoon.
Between these disturbances, cloud and some patches of sun will move through the Finger Lakes this morning. The sun will help warm the ground, which will cause a slight amount of instability in the atmosphere, due to very cold air moving in aloft. As a result, even as highs only struggle to get to 70 degrees today, showers and a few thunderstorms will pop up as the disturbance moves in.
The showers will be scattered and small, so a fair amount of the region will probably see little to no rain today. The chances for rain will be higher over the eastern Finger Lakes, where the sun will have a bit of extra time to warm the surface before the disturbance arrives.
With the cold air aloft and some favorable winds, it will not be too difficult for some of the storms to get a bit strong, but the overall severe threat is very limited. Any storms that do form could have some small hail or gusty winds. Any storms that do become strong would only do so briefly before dissipating.
The best time for thunderstorms will be from about 1pm-5pm. A few showers will linger into the overnight hours, with another batch of showers on Wednesday as another disturbance swings through. Temperatures will be even cooler, with highs only near 60 degrees on Wednesday.
Thursday looks mostly dry as the parent low finally starts to move away from the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, with highs in the low 60s. Friday will be dry as well, with temperatures in the mid and upper 60s.
Saturday will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could get strong over the western parts of the region. Temperatures will rise back into the 70s, only to return to the 60s on Sunday and into early next week.