Some widespread rain Saturday afternoon could provide some short term drought relief.
With the drought persisting across the Finger Lakes, the region needs a number of widespread, long duration rain events. Anything else, including getting too much rain too fast, will either do little to help with the drought, or will cause problems of its own.
Thankfully, it does look like some widespread rain may move into the Finger Lakes this weekend. While it will not be a terrible long or soaking event, it is certainly better than only having spotty showers, or nothing at all.
The best chance for this widespread rain will be during Saturday afternoon. Low pressure will move towards the region from the southwest and should produce an area of rain over the Finger Lakes. Some embedded thunderstorms will bring locally heavier amounts, but most places could see upwards of a half-inch of precipitation.
There will be occasional batches of rain and showers throughout the weekend. Sunday afternoon could see some spotty showers and storms develop, with more isolated activity the remainder of the time.
Though not shown on the graph above, a few more lingering showers or storms will be possible on Monday as well.
Not surprisingly, with the clouds and showers around this weekend, temperatures will remain closer to seasonal averages and further away from overly hot temperatures. Highs on Friday will be the warmest of the upcoming days, with low and mid 80s. Saturday and Sunday will both see highs primarily in the upper 70s. Monday may even be a bit cooler as the storm system pulls away, with highs in the mid 70s.
High pressure will build in for the later part of next week, but even then, the temperatures will not get too warm. Highs should return to the 80s as the sun rules the sky, but at this time, there are no 90s in the forecast.
I have heard many comments stating that it may take the remains of a hurricane to end our drought. A tropical system could certain bring some beneficial rain to the area, but would also bring the risk of seeing too much rain too fast. Still, the extra interest in the tropics is warranted, so I will be keeping tabs on any potential systems.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season got off to an active start in May and June. Already there has been a hurricane and three tropical storms named during this season. Since Tropical Storm Danielle in mid-June, however, the tropics have been very quiet. This is starting to change, however, and the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
The first system is rapidly moving west towards the Caribbean. Any development of this system will be slow to occur, due at least in part to its rapid speed. Towards the middle of next week, this system should be into the Caribbean before heading for the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. Even if this system does not evolve much, it could introduce extra moisture into the Deep South, which could eventually make its way northeast towards us. This is nothing but speculation at this point, but will be something to watch over the next two weeks. Tropical system tracks are notoriously difficult to project, especially at this sort of range of time.
The second system is even further east in the Atlantic Ocean. In the short term, conditions are better for development over the next couple of days. However, towards next week, the environment will become more hostile for tropical development and could cause the system to dissipate. I am much less enthusiastic about the potential for moisture eventually reaching the United States from this system than the first.