Morning clouds Friday will give way to sun by the afternoon.
High Pressure Builds In
A weak front has been making its way across the Finger Lakes early Friday morning.
A few showers were triggered along the front over the southeastern Finger Lakes. These showers are already departing the region and no further precipitation is expected today.
Clouds will likely linger into the later morning hours, but as high pressure builds in from the north, those clouds should erode away.
A pleasant mix of sun and clouds, a gentle breeze and comfortable temperatures will make for a nice afternoon. Most places will see highs in the low 80s, with some mid 80s in the typically warmer areas such as Rochester, Canadaigua and Geneva.
Skies will clear as the sun sets this evening. A little fog could develop overnight. Otherwise, it will be a quiet, calm night with lows well into the 60s.
Saturday will be the pick day of the weekend. Similar to Friday afternoon, it will be quiet with a mix of sun and clouds and mostly comfortable temperatures.
Afternoon highs Saturday will be a couple degrees warmer than Friday with more mid 80s than low 80s showing up. Skies should clear once again for the overnight, with lows in the mid and upper 60s.
Southerly winds will pump heat and humidity into the Finger Lakes for Sunday. Afternoon highs will reach 90 degrees in many places, with a heat index in the mid 90s.
Skies will remain partly cloudy until late in the afternoon. Then, an incoming cold front will start to trigger some showers and thunderstorms which will linger into the evening hours. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time, but frequent lightning and heavy rain are possible. The exact timing will be nailed down over the next 24-48 hours.
The tropical wave I have been monitoring all week remains disorganized as it approaches the Bahamas this morning. Overall conditions seem less than idea for development and there are now major questions whether Hermine will develop from this system at all.
After touting the strength of the European weather models, there is a very real chance that the American GFS will score a major victory with this system. The GFS has been fairly consistent in showing little to no development and a weak low pressure system moving up the east side of Florida. Last night’s control run of the European showed a similar scenario.
The development of a strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico now seems much more unlikely. Likewise, it seems very unlikely this system will make it west towards Louisiana, where the last thing the flood ravaged state needs is more tropical rains. As I discussed yesterday, there is also very little chance moisture from this tropical wave makes it even close to the Finger Lakes next week.
The tropics are finicky though and strange, unexpected things can and do happen. As long as this system lingers in the vicinity of Florida, it bears keeping an eye on.