On and off showers will persist through Wednesday, with some steadier rain possible this evening.
Wet Weather Wednesday
Today’s weather in the Finger Lakes will be characterized by its showery nature.
A storm system is located over the southeast United States. This system is responsible for needed rain in areas where drought and wildfires have become national news, yet has also spawned deadly tornadoes.
Precipitation ahead of this system is widespread throughout the Appalachian mountains as the system tracks northeast.
The Finger Lakes will be on the back edge of the main precipitation area. Unfortunately, this will mean we will miss out on substantial rain for much of today as the bulk of the precipitation slides into southeast New York, where the drought remains worse than it is here. Look for an update on our drought status Friday morning.
Expect on and off showers throughout the day today. Rainfall amounts through this evening will generally be around or less than a tenth of an inch.
The system over the Southeast is connected to a large system spinning over the Midwest. As this parent system tracks east, it may help trigger a more widespread batch of rain this evening along its cold front. Rain fall amounts will not be tremendous, but a few places could see a half inch.
As the cold front comes through, a couple of rumbles of thunder may also be possible, especially across the western Finger Lakes and western New York.
Temperatures will spend much of the day in the 50s, with highs topping out mostly in the mid 50s.
Cold air will move back into the Finger Lakes behind the cold front. The temperature will not immediate drop to below normal levels, with the initial drop simply resetting us towards seasonal norms.
This will mean highs in the low and mid 40s for Thursday and Friday before some 30s settle in for the weekend.
The Great Lakes will respond to the colder air with some healthy lake effect to the east of the Great Lakes. This lake effect will develop on Thursday and persist into Friday, but much of it will fall as rain and not snow.
A few of the higher elevations in southwest New York and in the Tug Hill region could see several inches of snow, but this would likely be a significant event if it were ten degrees colder.
By Saturday, the winds will turn towards the northwest, sending a spray of rain and snow showers into the Finger Lakes. Light accumulations maxing out at an inch or two can be expected before the lake effect falls apart.
Looking Further Ahead
Taking a peek at the weather beyond the weekend, it appears the region will be impacted by another storm system from the south early next week. Most of this system will likely be warm enough for just rain. However, there is at least some potential for some snow as the system pulls away.
Towards the end of next week, it appears that cold air will entrench itself over the northeast once again. This could bring lake effect snow back into the picture, but it is way too early to speculate on the conditions necessary for lake effect or where it would go, should it develop.
Temperatures during the third week of December may be a bit warmer than the second week, but cooler than they are now. Generally near or below normal temperatures will be possible into the later half of December.
It is certainly much, much too soon to make any firm predictions about the chances of a White Christmas, but the overall pattern is encouraging for those hoping for snow by December 25th.