Rain will increase in coverage through the day as temperatures rise on increasing strong south winds.
Rain Throughout Tuesday
Early this morning, a few scattered showers dotted the region out ahead of a much larger area of rain. With temperatures rising into the low 30s, some of these showers are still snow or ice, but most areas will likely not see any significant problems from icy conditions.
With temperatures rising into the low 30s, some of these showers are still snow or ice, but most areas will likely not see any significant problems from icy conditions.
Rain moving through Ohio and Pennsylvania will lift north into the Finger Lakes later this morning. Some of the rain may come down hard briefly, and a rumble of thunder is not totally farfetched.
On and off rain will persist through the afternoon and evening hours. Overnight, the rain will taper off to just a few scattered showers which will linger into Wednesday morning.
Total rain amounts will range from near a half inch to as much as an inch.
Strong Winds Develop
A steady south wind will develop across the region throughout the course of the day today. This southerly wind will help transport warmer air into the region.
During the afternoon hours, the wind will start to become a bit strong, especially over higher elevations where some gusts to 40 mph will be possible. At lower elevations, wind gusts this afternoon will be closer to 30 mph.
Temperatures will soar to near 50 degrees along and west of I-390 as warm air gets pumped north. Further east, temperatures will range through the 40s, with the I-81 corridor only reaching around 40 degrees by this evening.
During the evening hours, the warm air will spread east, with most areas seeing temperatures near or above 50 degrees between 8 pm and midnight. Temperatures will fall after midnight as a cold front passes through.
The strongest winds will be this evening as well. Again, higher elevations will see the highest gusts this evening. A few gusts to 50 mph is not out of the question. As the front moves through, strong winds will be possible at all elevations, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
The winds will taper off during the course of the day Wednesday.
Near Miss Thursday, Lake Snows Friday
As the storm system responsible for all this rain and wind moves from the Great Lakes into Canada, a secondary system will develop over the Ohio Valley and track into the Mid-Atlantic. Once near the coast, this system will turn north and rapidly strengthen.
With cold air settling in behind the first storm, a large area of snow is expected to the north and west of this second storm. A significant snowfall will result for parts of eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and New England.
The very northern edge of the precipitation from this system may clip the Southern Tier and eastern reaches of the Finger Lakes, approximately south of a Bath to Ithaca to Cortland line. A couple of inches may be possible for those areas, while the remainder of the Finger Lakes remains dry.
A slight shift further north and west with this system could bring higher amounts, so this will be something to watch.
More certain is that lake effect will develop across the Finger Lakes on Friday behind this system.
A strong band is possible across much of the Finger Lakes as the Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario team up. The exact position of the band will have to be resolved over the next few days, but some areas could see some travel trouble on Friday from this event.