Lake effect snow will develop overnight behind an arctic cold front.
Warmer Ahead of Front
Skies have remained cloudy overnight throughout the Finger Lakes. Along with a southwest wind, this has kept temperatures from falling very much this morning.
Most areas are starting the day in the mid or low 30s and the temperature should rise into the 40s before noon. Afternoon highs today will top out in the mid and upper 40s, which is just slightly above normal for the first days of Spring.
Some sun will make an attempt to work out this afternoon, which will help boost those temperatures up. It will only have moderate success, with a mix of sun and clouds likely.
A spit of rain is not out of the question, but the majority of the region will stay dry this morning and afternoon.
Temperatures this evening will slowly drop back through the 40s and into the upper 30s before a cold front moves through after 9 pm.
Big Change Behind Cold Front
Once the front moves through, temperatures will quickly fall back through the 20s. By sunrise, most areas will likely be in the mid or upper teens.
Some scattered flurries will accompany the front, but generally speaking, the front will come through with little fanfare.
However, the cold north-northwest winds behind the front will kick up some lake effect snow. The areas most favored for snow will be the central Finger Lakes between midnight and 6 am. Accumulations during this time frame will generally only be an inch or two.
Towards the early morning hours, winds may take on an alignment favorable for lake effect snow off of the Finger Lakes, especially Cayuga Lake. A couple more inches could fall in areas directly south-southeast of Seneca, Cayuga, and perhaps Owasco and Skaneateles Lakes.
The lake effect should end by noon, but it will not be due to a lack of cold and wind.
High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will only top out near 20 degrees. Winds gusting between 30-40 mph will produce wind chill values that are hardly above zero degrees.
The temperature itself will likely fall to or below zero for some of the colder areas by Thursday morning as skies clear and winds lessen overnight. Most locations will end up in the single digits.
Weather Rebounds Quickly
As quickly as this arctic blast moves in, it will depart.
Sunny skies on Thursday will help temperature rebound from the cold start with highs topping out around 30 degrees.
That is still quite a bit below normal, but certainly a significant improvement.
Friday will be closer to normal, with highs near or above 40 degrees, with the warmest temperatures across the west.
A warm front will sit over the region this weekend. Just south of the front, temperatures will push into the 60s. At this point, it does not look like that warm air will make it north of the New York-Pennsylvania state line, but the forecast remains uncertain.