Strong wind gusts, periods of rain, and even some thunder are possible today with more heavy rain likely Thursday.
Wind, Rain, & Thunder Tuesday
Low pressure is moving into the Great Lakes this morning and will continue to track northeast, passing across southern Canada. This is a favorable track for windy conditions across the Finger Lakes and especially western New York.
Wind Advisories and Warnings are in place for the western half of the Finger Lakes as a result. A wind warning is more serious than a wind advisory.
Monroe, Genesee, and Wyoming counties are under a wind warning with the potential for gusts over 55 mph. Wayne, Ontario, Livingston and Allegany counties are under advisories for wind gusts up to 50 mph. No wind alerts have been issued further east, but gusts could reach 40 mph.
The strongest winds are expected during the afternoon hours today.
Periods of scattered showers will occasionally drift through the region today. The late morning and mid to late afternoon in particular look to have a decent chance for rain.
A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible this afternoon, especially across the eastern half of the Finger Lakes. Showers will linger into the overnight before gradually ending.
Temperatures today will top out in the low 60s before dropping back into the 50s for the early evening hours.
Next Storm Quickly Moves In
Wednesday will be quiet across the Finger Lakes. Clouds, fog, and drizzle may be possible in the morning, but a few breaks of sun may sneak out during the afternoon hours. High temperatures should reach the mid 50s.
There will only be a small window for sun before the next storm system moves in. This storm system will be strong and will bring a large amount of precipitation to the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
With very little time to dry out from the rain last night and today, and with soils already saturdated, flood concerns are rising across most of the area.
Flood watches had already been issued to encompass both the additional rain today and at the end of the week. Only Tompkins, Schuyler, Yates, Chemung, Steuben, and Allegany counties do not have flood watches in place at this point.
Rain will start to move in Wednesday night and will continue for much of Thursday and into Thursday night. Some of the rain will likely be heavy, especially if any embedded thunderstorms develop.
Total precipitation by Friday evening, including what fell last night, should be between 2 and 4 inches across the Finger Lakes. Both short term, localized flash flooding and longer term, main stem river flooding are possible.
Cold air will wrap aroung the back side of this system Friday night and early Saturday. This should change the precipitation at least to a mix of rain and snow. Some snow accumulations seem possible, especially over higher elevations and in western New York. It remains too early to be more detailed.