An area of heavy rain will move in this afternoon, then mix with snow Thursday night and Friday.
Heavy Rain Thursday Afternoon
An area of low pressure over Michigan this morning will redevelop over Pennsylvania and track north across Central New York this afternoon.
As this process takes place, scattered rain showers this morning will become more widespread as the day goes on. By this afternoon, a large area of widespread rain is likely.
Embedded within this large area of rain will be pockets of heavier downpours, possibly accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder. It is in these heavier downpours that the greatest chance for some minor flooding will take place.
Generally speaking though, significant flash flooding and river flooding is not expected. That is not to say poor drainage areas will not get inundated and some basements will not get wet, but that significant, damaging flooding is unlikely.
Total rain amounts through this evening will generally be around an inch, give or take some based on the isolated nature of the heavier downpours.
In addition to the rain, winds will be gusty today, with top gusts between 35-45 mph. Higher elevations will be the most susceptible to the highest gusts,
After moving through Central New York, the low pressure system will track northwest towards Lake Ontario tonight, then slowly northeast on Friday.
This will put the Finger Lakes on the cold side of the storm with temperatures falling into the 30s this evening and remaining there through Friday. Temperatures above the surface will fall below freezing.
This will result in a mix of rain and snow that will gradually turn to mostly snow.
Even though it will snow for quite a lengthy period of time, the intensity of the snow will generally be light to moderate. With surface temperatures above freezing and a warm ground, it will be difficult to get much in the way of snow accumulation.
Still, a couple of slushy inches will be possible on decks and grassy surfaces, especially over higher elevations. Roads should generally remain mostly wet.
Snow will taper to a few flurries Friday night before ending before the sun rises Saturday.
From Snow to Summer
True to the nature of Spring in the Finger Lakes, the weather will undergo a rapid transformation over the weekend and into early next week.
As the storm pulls away Saturday, skies will turn sunny, but temperatures will remain chilly. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s, but a gusty wind will make it feel a bit cooler than it actually is.
Temperatures will fall back into the upper 20s Saturday night but will take off Sunday morning with the help of sunny skies and a south wind.
In all, a jump of 30-40 degrees should be expected between Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 60s.
Temperatures will climb even higher on Monday and Tuesday to almost summery levels. Expect highs well into the 70s, with a few places making a run at 80 degrees.
More seasonable temperatures will move back in for the second half of next week, but no precipitation is expected until at least Thursday.