A couple of showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon, mostly across the Southern Tier and far southern Finger Lakes.
Clash of Air Masses
A frontal boundary has developed this morning and extends from northern New England, across Lake Ontario, and back towards Chicago.
This boundary is the direct result of competing high pressure systems. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean has been pumping heat and humidity northward since the weekend, while an new high pressure is digging southeast across Canada.
A small disturbance is riding along this front this morning. A few showers and possibly a small thunderstorm will skirt the Lake Ontario shoreline counties this morning.
A strong disturbacne will drop southeast along the front as the front sags south for this afternoon. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely devleop as a result, but mostly for the southern portions of the region.
The best chances for rain will be after 4 pm across the counties that border Pennsylvania. Areas further north will see little to no precipitation. Thunderstorms should move southeast of the area before the sun sets tonight, with just a few widely scattered light showers across the entire region this evening.
Temperatures will push into the low 80s. By the mid and late afternoon, the northern Finger Lakes may start to cool back into the 70s.
Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up to the the pick days of the week.
Wednesday will start with a few clouds, but will quickly turn sunny during the morning. Mostly sunny skies are likely throughout the afternoon with comfortable highs mostly in the mid 70s, Areas close to Lake Ontario will be a bit cooler with a steady, but not too strong north wind.
The wind will start to swing back towards the south for Thursday. Temperatures are a bit uncertain, but should return to the 80s. Low 80s are a good bet, but some mid 80s may try to sneak in as well.
Skies will be partly cloudy with no precipitation expected.
Very hot and humid air will remain in place over the middle of the country throughout this week and into the weekend. This warm air will want to move northeast towards the Finger Lakes, resulting in a steady stream of storm systems that will keep the area unsettled.
Some rain is likely on Friday as warm air makes a push northeast. Temperatures Friday will likely be a bit cooler with the clouds and showers, but highs should push well into the 80s on Saturday and Sunday.
A few isolated showers and storms may develop Saturday afternoon with perhaps a better chance for rain on Sunday. Showers and storms are also likely on Monday and into next week.
Of course, with plenty of humidity and warm temperatures in place, there potential for stronger storms will need to be addressed. At this time it is much too early to speculate on what days, if any, may have strong storms.
However, flash flooding could become a potential issue if the same areas see heavy rain from thunderstorms for multiple days.