Summer Returns to the Finger Lakes
A warm, muggy air mass will move into the Finger Lakes, providing plenty of fuel for thunderstorms over the next few days.
The summer time air will begin to move into the Finger Lakes today as a warm front lifts northeast through the region this morning.
A few showers are showing up on the radar along this front early this morning, but for the most part, are not actually reaching the ground. Therefore, most areas will likely remain dry this morning.
Winds will strengthen from the southwest, importing the warm and eventually humid air.
Temperatures will be the first to go up with afternoon highs near or above 80 degrees today. The humidity will lag a bit behind, leaving only a marginal thunderstorm environment today.
Still, there are indications that a broken line of storms may try to develop late this afternoon. There will be a minimal chance for a stronger storm with gusty winds and small hail possible.
Occasional showers and storms will continue to be possible well into the overnight hours.
The humidity will continue to increase overnight, setting up a muggy Friday and Saturday.
Stormy Chances Increase With Time
The thunderstorm threat on Friday looks greater than it does on Thursday.
Some sun early Friday will help temperatures push quickly into the low and mid 80s by the early afternoon.
Dew points will become uncomfortably muggy in the upper 60s and low 70s. This will also create an environment primed for thunderstorm development.
Additionally, winds aloft will also be favorable for some thunderstorm organization. The main question becomes a mechanism to trigger the storms.
At the very least, leftover wind boundaries from overnight and early morning precipitation and wind shifts based on the Great Lakes and topographical differences should touch off a few isolated storms. A greater threat could exist if a passing pocket of energy in the atmosphere brushes close enough to the Finger Lakes as it passes to the north.
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Friday’s storms should diminish as the sun sets and Saturday morning should start sunny and dry. As early as the late morning, some new storm development may be possible.
However, the late afternoon and evening hours Saturday appear to be the stormiest time of all as a strong cold front approaches the region.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected. The atmosphere will again be primed for at least some strong thunderstorms. While still uncertain, a larger outbreak of severe weather is on the table.
Coinciding with the start of the holiday weekend, this could create some hazardous situations. If you have outdoor plans of any sort on Saturday, be sure to stick with FLX Weather for continuing updates.
The weather should calm down and be more comfortable behind the front on Sunday, though a pop-up shower may still be possible.