Active Weather Pattern Returns
The Finger Lakes will once again be caught in an active weather pattern with numerous chances for rain and thunderstorms this week.
The most difficult part of the forecast this week will be timing the arrival of rain and thunderstorms as a parade of subtle disturbances ride along a boundary separating hot and humid air to the south and cool, dry air to the north.
The Finger Lakes will be caught right in the middle of these two air masses, resulting in a few periods of rain and thunderstorms.
Some isolated severe weather will be possible throughout the week with these thunderstorms, but the bigger threat will be for heavy rain and flash flooding.
Most of the region can only take on a couple of inches of rain before flash flooding becomes an issue.
The atmosphere will be plenty humid and capable of torrential rains. Especially later in the week, after the first couple rounds of rain have already further saturated the ground, local flash flood thresholds could be met.
Daily Weather Details
As mentioned above, the forecast confidence for the day to day details this week remains uncertain beyond a day or two. Timing the disturbances is the primary difficulty, though the timing should not have too much impact on the resultant weather.
For Monday though, most of the day will be dry. A disturbance has passed by to the north earlier this morning, resulting in some clouds but no rain across the Finger Lakes. A brief period of some sun may be possible before clouds thicken this afternoon. With the clouds, most areas will top out in the upper 70s with a few low 80s also possible.
A few showers will start to show up this afternoon with rain increasing this evening and overnight. Even with the disturbance moving in during the nighttime hours, thunderstorms will be possible, especially after midnight. Given the nature of this particular disturbance and that this is the first round of rain this week, the flood potential tonight is minimal.
Showers will linger into early Tuesday morning before mostly clearing out by the late morning. A stray shower or storm will remain possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, but generally, this period should remain dry. Temperatures Tuesday should be in the upper 70s.
Like today, much of Wednesday should be dry before a disturbance approaches later in the day. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous Wednesday night and into Thursday. This disturbance looks more capable of torrential downpours at this point, so the flood threat may be higher.
Beyond this disturbance, the forecast becomes quite fuzzy. Additional showers and storms seem like a decent bet on Friday. The pattern may start to break down for the weekend with just some scattered light showers, but this remains very uncertain at this point.