Monday’s Rain Overview
Low pressure is sitting over Lake Ontario this morning, where it will spend most of the day. Showers and thunderstorms will persist across the Finger Lakes as a result.
Steady rain overnight has pushed out of the eastern Finger Lakes this morning, but more scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the western Finger Lakes.
These showers and storms will slowly drift eastward through this morning. By the late morning, most of the Finger Lakes should be in a lull in the precipitation. This lull will continue into the early afternoon, though a few isolated showers or storms may still dot the region.
A strong piece of atmospheric energy will rotate around the low and move into the Finger Lakes this afternoon. As it does so, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop.
The intensity and coverage of these storms will depend on how much the atmosphere can destabilize during the lull in the precipitation. I do not think a large amount of destabilization will occur, but there still should be numerous showers and storms during the second half of the afternoon.
One or two of these storms may briefly become strong with some gusty winds.
The atmosphere is not as saturated as it has been in recent days. However, with the ground unable to take on much additional rain, a low chance for flash flooding continues, especially in a line from Canandaigua to Ithaca to Binghamton, where heavy rain fell on Sunday. Generally speaking though, the flood threat, while still existing, is not quite as serious as it has been over the past couple of weeks.
Weather Slowly Clears Out
Thunderstorms will continue this evening until nightfall. Once the daytime heating is lost, the precipitation will transition over to scattered, light rain showers.
These showers will persist through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. No flooding is expected from these on and off spits of rain.
The showers will gradually decrease in coverage during the second half of Tuesday morning. A stray shower may be possible into Tuesday afternoon, but generally speaking, conditions will dry out.
Some sun will try to work out on Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures, which will be quite chilly on Tuesday with highs in the 60s, will rebound into the upper 70s on Wednesday and possibly near 80 degrees on Thursday.
Next weekend is also looking rather nice at this point in time, with sunny skies and comfortable temperatures.
Before we get to that though, another system will move through Thursday night into Friday. Depending on the track of this low, the Figner Lakes will either see just a few showers or a steady, possibly heavy rain event. Uncertainty remains high, though it is something to watch closely over the coming days.