Breezy, Cool Saturday
An area of low pressure located to the north of Lake Ontario sent a strong cold front through the Finger Lakes Friday night. Gusty west winds behind the front will transport some cool air into the Finger Lakes on Saturday.
These winds may gust over 30 mph at times during the later morning and afternoon hours.
As cool air moves into the region, temperatures will struggle to rise very much through the day. Most places will see high temperatures around 70 degrees Saturday afternoon, which is about ten degrees below normal.
With the gusty winds though, it will feel even cooler.
A few stray showers are expected to develop during the late morning hours. These should persist into the early and mid afternoon before dissipating.
Heavy rain is not expected, and most of the showers should be very brief.
Sunshine will be more likely late in the afternoon as skies begin to clear. Fog will start to develop this evening and will become dense in some areas overnight as temperatures drop back through the 50s.
Sunday will start foggy and chilly, with morning lows in the low 50s. A few of the coldest areas could even slip back into the 40s.
Partly cloudy skies will be in place once any fog burns off.
A deck of high clouds will stream in from the south later in the afternoon and could filter the amount of sunshine.
Winds will be light throughout the day. Without a fresh supply of cold air from the west, the sun should help temperatures rebound into the mid 70s.
Temperatures will be slower to drop in the evening as clouds continue to thicken. A few showers may be possible late in the evening, but most areas will probably stay dry.
Rain Concerns Monday
A new area of low pressure will make its way northeast on Monday. The exact track of the low is uncertain and will have a large impact on our weather Monday.
The latest runs of the European model have brought heavy rain back into the area with a more northerly track for the low. As I have said many times, the European is consistently the best model. However, among various members of the European ensemble, rain amounts vary greatly.
What this all means is that we are still in a wait and see mode.
Showers should become more numerous Sunday night into early Monday. Showers will either continue into Monday afternoon or transition to a steady, heavier rain event that could raise flood concerns.
Either way, most areas will likely see rain on Monday.
With thick clouds and rain in place, do not expect temperatures to escape the 60s on Monday.