Unsettled Weather Continues for the Finger Lakes
A large dip in the jet stream over the Great Lakes and Northeast will keep the weather in the Finger Lakes cool and unsettled for a couple more days.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over New England extends westward as a pseudo-front across northern New York and into Michigan.
This trough of lower pressure will rotate into the Finger Lakes later on today. Coupled with the daytime heating of the surface and cool air aloft, pop up showers and even a couple of thunderstorms will develop.
While a couple of isolated showers are possible at almost any time today, the chances for rain will increase during the early afternoon.
Showers will become scattered to numerous during the mid and late afternoon hours before slowly tapering off this evening.
A couple of these showers may grow into small thunderstorms capable of some occasional lightning and perhaps even some very small hail.
A few lake enhanced showers south of Lake Ontario will remain possible through the overnight.
Friday should be a little less active, but scattered showers will remain likely from time to time.
Temperatures will remain cool with mid 60s for highs Thursday and low 60s on Friday.
Weather Improves for the Weekend
High pressure will build into the Finger Lakes this weekend and remain in place into next week.
A few scattered showers off of Lake Ontario are still going to be possible Saturday morning before dry air arrives. These should be light and mostly insignificant.
The sun will start to peek in and out of the clouds by midday Saturday, with increasing amounts of sun as the afternoon continues.
Temperatures Saturday will reach the mid 60s but will drop well into the 40s Saturday night under clear skies.
Sunday should be sunny with some fair weather clouds in the afternoon and no precipitation. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s.
Partly cloudy skies should remain in place into early next week with highs finally returning to the 70s Monday and Tuesday.
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Thursday Hurricane Irma Updates
There has been little change in the strength or forecast for Irma from my Wednesday update.
The winds have dropped slightly to 180 mph, but that is honestly an insignificant change. Irma remains a catastrophic category 5 hurricane.
Irma has passed by Puerto Rico and is now north of the Dominican Republic.
The model consensus tacks Irma along the east coast of Florida. A wide range of possibilities still show on the ensembles, ranging from a west Florida landfall to a host of solutions along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas with a few final ensemble members curving Irma out to sea.
Irma will likely begin to impact the United States on Saturday. Even if the eye of Irma does not make landfall in Florida, much of the state will likely see some impacts. Evacuations are underway and preparations should be nearing completion for south Florida.