On Borrowed Time
The weather in the Finger Lakes will follow up on a nice weekend with another pleasant day on Monday.
A broad southerly flow has kept temperatures in the 30s overnight across the Finger Lakes while the Southern Tier has dropped into the 20s.
Those temperatures should rise fairly quickly this morning thanks to some sunshine and as the south wind strengthens.
High, thin clouds will work in this morning to filter some of the sunshine and the day should get progressively cloudier.
Still, temperatures will easily reach the upper 40s for most places with some 50 degree readings likely.
These temperatures are 10-15 degrees above normal for early December.
A couple showers will be possible overnight as a warm front lifts through. After dipping into the upper 30s this evening, temperatures will stall out or even rise a couple of degrees after midnight tonight.
Cold Front Ushers In New Season
Over the Midwest, a storm system is taking shape as it rapidly strengthens. This system will spread blizzard conditions across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota as it lifts north into Canada.
South of the storm center, a strong cold front will barrel its way across the Midwest and Great Lakes.
By Tuesday morning, rain out ahead of this front should be moving into the Finger Lakes along with strong winds.
The rain will persist for much of the day on Tuesday, as will the wind. Gusts over 40 mph are likely and a few gusts over 50 mph will be possible.
Temperatures will remain in the 40s throughout the day. The actual front will not move through until the evening hour.
Temperatures will quickly drop out of the 40s and into the 30s and 20s Tuesday Night.
Welcome to Winter
Once the front clears the Finger Lakes, winter will have arrived in the Finger Lakes.
Lake effect snow will quickly develop behind the front on southwest winds. This will keep the lake effect northwest of the Finger Lakes, primarily confined to areas north of Buffalo and west of Rochester through Wednesday.
Outside of the lake effect, sunshine is likely across the Finger Lakes with gusty winds in excess of 30 mph. Temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 30s.
Wednesday night, winds will start to turn towards the west.
This should bring the lake effect snow bands south with the Lake Erie band moving into the Finger Lakes.
The heaviest snow will be west of the Finger Lakes, but on and off flurries and squalls are possible throughout Thursday.
A couple of inches may fall in the vicinity of a Dansville to Penn Yan to Cortland line, though the exact location will still need to be resolved in the coming days.
Temperatures will continue to fall, with highs in the low 30s Thursday into Friday.
Lake effect snow will continue to move around and fluctuate in strength through the weekend and into next week.
Temperatures will persist in the 30s for a few more days this weekend, but next week looks even colder with most days only in the 20s.
This pattern is expected to persist for the foreseeable future and it looks like winter is here to stay.