A Little Lake Effect
A fresh batch of cold air is moving into the Finger Lakes on northwest winds, triggering a spray of flurries and squalls Friday morning.
True to the nature of lake effect, this snow is very localized, with heavy snow falling in one location and no snow in a neighboring spot.
The lake effect is fairly disorganized and will be on and off this morning, which will help keep accumulations minimal. Including what fell last night, most areas will see up to an inch with a few places getting two inches.
Snow showers should significantly taper off near or shortly after noon, but I think a few light flurries persist east of Cayuga Lake.
Further west, the afternoon will likely turn sunny as high pressure begins to exert its force on the region.
Between the high pressure system and a small disturbance that moved through overnight, gusty northwest winds will blow throughout the day. Frequent gusts of 30-40 mph are likely, which may cause some drifting in the usual locations.
Temperatures will be cold with little upward movement. Most of the day will stick in the mid and upper 20s with wind chills in the teens.
Sunshine should be abundant throughout the weekend as high pressure remains in control of the region.
A few fair weather clouds off of Lake Ontario will likely linger on Saturday while a few more scattered clouds drift through Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear this weekend, which will lead to some rather cold mornings.
Saturday morning will not be too frigid with lows ranging from the mid teens across the south to the low 20s near Lake Ontario.
However, Sunday morning will be colder with single digit temperatures for most areas. Monday morning will repeat those temperatures.
High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday should reach the low and mid 30s.
Northwest winds will still be rather gusty on Saturday, but not quite as strong as on Friday. Winds become light and variable on Sunday.
Next Week’s Storm
Hype continues to abound for “nor’easter number 4” towards the middle of next week.
As I said yesterday, the models have been doing a good job identifying these threats as far as 7-10 days in advance.
Identifying a threat is not the same as pinpointing where, or to what magnitude a storm may occur.
The last couple runs of the European Ensembles, my tool of choice for longer range trends and predictions, have significantly backed off on the threat for the Finger Lakes.
That is not to say we are clear and free, but at this current time, the chances for even a moderate winter weather event, based on these ensembles, is around 10%.
This will continue to be a wait-and-see game until we are through the weekend, or at least well into Sunday.
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