Unsettled weather turns warm, then wild

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday april 11 2018 rain snow
Some rain and snow showers Wednesday will precede steadier rain Thursday. Warmer, then wild weather will move in late in the week and for the weekend. [Photo by Richard Potter]

Warm Air Fights Back

Spring is finally going to make a run at arriving in the Finger Lakes, setting up a bitter fight with Winter that will result in some wild weather over the next five or six days.

Before this battle unfolds, a series of small disturbances embedded in the jet stream will drift through the region on Wednesday. The first of these is over Pennsylvania this morning while the second is back over Michigan.

A few flurries from the first system will clip the region during the morning hours with a better chance for rain and snow showers developing this afternoon and evening from the second system.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer than they have been, with most areas reaching the mid 40s today.

Warm air will then start to push north as high pressure builds into the Southeastern United States.

A period of steady rain is likely from the mid-morning Thursday into the early afternoon with some scattered rain showers lingering later in the day.

Temperatures behind this rain will surge well into the 50s with some 60s even possible across the western Southern Tier late in the afternoon Thursday.

Get Ready for a Ride

By Friday, the cold and warm air will start to battle one another for control over the Finger Lakes.

It looks increasingly likely that the cut off between these two air masses will set up right over the region, splitting into two halves, north and south.

To the south, places like Elmira and Ithaca could shoot close to or even above 70 degrees. Meanwhile, in the north, Rochester and Syracuse may struggle to get above 50 degrees. Many areas may bounce around the 50s and 60s.

A few showers will be possible, especially during the morning hours, before most of the precipitation shifts north.

Saturday morning, the boundary will still likely be over the middle of the region, but then it is expected to sag south and precipitation will move back in.

Warm air may then move back in for a time Sunday as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. Heavy precipitation and rain along the cold front will be possible Sunday night into Monday.

Many of these details remain very uncertain, including the type of precipitation that will fall. There is concern, however, for periods of freezing rain, especially over western and northern areas Saturday night.

Please continue to monitor the forecast cautiously, realizing that drastic changes to the forecast will be possible. Whatever the weather ends up doing, Friday-Monday will be a period of active, wild weather.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making goat milk soap, running until his legs burn, or playing with his three young boys.