Late Day Thunderstorms
After showers Thursday morning, an afternoon break in the precipitation should set the stage for a couple of strong thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.
Cloudy skies overnight have temperatures starting the day in the upper 60s and low 70s.
At 7 am, one area of rain was moving across the northern Finger Lakes while a second area was moving east across Lake Erie.
These areas of rain should gradually dissipate this morning, but showers will remain a possibility until midday.
Temperatures during this time will rise slightly into the mid 70s.
NOON UPDATE: An increase in morning sun has increased the chance for more widespread and more significant severe storms. While this morning I was expecting sporadic, minor wind damage, the threat for more numerous and more severe wind damage reports is increasing. While still unlikely, the tornado threat needs to be considered as well. I have “crossed out” portions of the blog below that I do not feel accurately represent the threat anymore. Unfortunately, I am unable to update the graphic below at this time, but would suggest that the yellow wind bar be advanced further to the right, but not yet in the ‘elevated’ zone. The tornado risk should also be adjusted to the right slightly, but not into the ‘low’ zone. Live video storm coverage is a possibility tonight.
Between noon and about 4 pm, skies will remain mostly cloudy, but a few breaks of sun may work out.
Temperatures will push into the upper 70s with dewpoints rising into the mid 60s.
This will result in modest amounts of instability in the atmosphere, which is the fuel that gets thunderstorms going.
A few scattered thunderstorm cells should be developing by 5 pm 3 pm and will continue into the evening hours.
Severe Thunderstorm Threats
Given that only scattered thunderstorm cells are expected, most areas will probably not see severe weather.
Still, a few locations will be subject to stronger storms.
The primary threat with these cells will be damaging winds. Some small hail will also be possible.
There is a very small tornado threat. I find it unlikely that any tornadoes will touch down, but it is not totally out of the question.
The threat for severe thunderstorms should diminish after 9 or 10 pm, though a few additional non-severe storms will be possible beyond that and again early Friday morning.
Round Two Friday?
After some morning rain and thunder again on Friday, skies should again partially clear for the afternoon.
As a cold front approaches in the evening, thunderstorms will again become possible in the late afternoon and evening hours.
With a stronger forcing mechanism in the cold front, thunderstorms may be more widespread as they organize into a broken line.
Given the current expected timing and position of the front, areas further west and north may have a higher severe risk.
Again, damaging winds will be the primary threat.
The set up for Friday will be watched closely with a full update in the morning.
Nice Weekend
Behind Friday’s cold front, the weather will turn quiet and pleasant for the weekend.
Saturday will have a mix of sun and high, thin cirrus clouds.
Sunday may be a bit cloudier with a late day shower possible.
High temperatures will be near or just above normal. Saturday will reach the upper 60s while Sunday will top out in the mid 60s.
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Strong thunderstorms possible through Friday – FingerLakes1.com
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