Posted: Saturday, June 21, 2025, 9:30 AM
Expires: Saturday, June 21, 2025, 2:00 PM
Forecast Update
After monitoring the latest radar trends and model data, my confidence in a dry day across the Finger Lakes is increasing.
At 9:16 AM, the radar was showing a cluster of storms north of Detroit, about to move from Michigan into southwestern Ontario, Canada.
The atmosphere ahead of these storms is less favorable for storms, and short term thunderstorm models are in good agreement that these should dissipate over the next couple of hours.
These same models are highly supportive of dry weather throughout the day in the Finger Lakes.
Now, while my confidence is increasing, I do still want to acknowledge that I have seen the models be wrong in these types of situations. The complexity of the atmosphere in a set up like this is difficult for even short term models to properly resolve.
In conclusion, I do expect it to stay dry and am proceeding with my day and outdoor plans under that assumption. But it will be worth checking the radar every so often to make sure no surprises pop up.
Our other window of uncertain rain chances is very early Sunday morning. Most areas should again stay dry, with the best chance for a little rain coming across the far northeastern portions of the region. Clouds associated with the leftovers from thunderstorms will persist well into the morning, but should thin out and dissipate later.
Heat Advisories are also in effect region-wide for the next several days. As mentioned in my posts the last few days, the core of the heat will be Sunday-Tuesday, but it will still be hot today and Wednesday as well.
Debra Finn
Thank you as always for keeping us up to date!! Especially when there are weather advisories! Appreciate all that you do to keep us safe and also to know when to mow the lawn! Just got a robotic mower or else we would not have been able to mow in May/beg. of June!! So your forecast for rain & storms have helped us slot!
Have a good weekend & stay cool!