Mid-Afternoon Thunderstorm Update

Posted: Monday, June 9, 2025, 3:45 PM
Expires: Monday, June 9, 2025, 6:00 PM

As I explained in my blog post this morning, an initial wave of mid-afternoon showers and thunderstorms has been moving through the western and northwestern Finger Lakes. The heaviest of these will be exiting into the eastern Lake Ontario region shortly, though a band of showers and a few rumbles of thunder extends south and southwest into Pennsylvania.

The next round(s) are reloading over northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio. Several of these are severe and there was even a brief, small tornado warning. A severe thunderstorm watch covers that area and comes as far as Allegany County.

Our threat remains heavy rain and flooding tonight, but the chance for isolated to scattered severe storms will remain through the late afternoon and early evening.

Some short-term modeling that is skilled in thunderstorms has consistently been showing a well developed line of storms moving through the western and central Finger Lakes around sunset. If this does develop over the next couple hours from those storms to our southwest, the damaging wind and flash flood risks would need to be considered a bit higher.

This same model has also been consistently outputting 2-4 inches of rain for some areas, though I have noticed lately it can be a little overdone with the rainfall amounts. Still, even two inches would be enough to produce flash flooding capable of causing damage, and anything over that would likely cause significant, dangerous flooding.

I will continue to monitor the situation constantly for the rest of the day and will have updates as necessary. You may also see warning graphics start to pop up in this Weather Updates section as I draw closer to completing my new, automated alert system.

Stay tuned and stay safe.