A tornado watch has been issued for all of the Finger Lakes and surrounding areas until 11 PM. I do not expect this watch to be cancelled early or trimmed back much in the Finger Lakes area.
Within this watch there is a 50% chance for 2 or more tornadoes, and a 30% chance for 1 or more strong (EF2+) tornadoes. These are both classified as “moderate” chances. The moderate chance for strong tornadoes in particular sticks out to me as exceptional for our area.
Additionally, there is a 70% chance (high) for 10 or more severe wind events, and a 40% chance (moderate) for 10 or more severe hail events. Severe hail is at least 1″ in diameter.
Thunderstorms have intensified over Ontario, Canada this afternoon. It is hard to see the radar beneath all the lightning icons. There is also some new blips on the radar developing in western New York.
Storms will continue to evolve and develop as they head eastward. Conditions are expected to become even more favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes as the wind fields aloft strengthen over the next couple of hours.
The tornado threat will be greatest in cells that remain isolated and by themselves. As these storm cells combine into clusters, the threat will transition to widespread, significant damaging winds, though isolated brief tornadoes may still occur within these clusters.
By the late evening, the severe threat will wane, but repeated thunderstorms may continue deep into the overnight, resulting in a flash flooding risk. Eventually, this will all become one large cluster that will slowly move south into Pennsylvania overnight.
I am known as the no-hype weather guy. So please take what follows seriously.
Some of these storms—not all, but some—have the potential to be very intense and dangerous. We have seen fatal tornadoes AND microbursts in our region even in the past few years. The threats are compounded when they come after dark and later at night.
Please take ALL warnings seriously and seek shelter from dangerous weather. Have a way to get notified of severe weather warnings if you are heading to bed before 11 PM. Be aware of where vulnerable trees are in relation to your house, especially from the north and northwest. And never drive through floodwaters.
I will continue to update this evening as I am able and will try to get a live blog going as soon as I can. I do have some other obligations over the next couple hours that I am going to try to meet before the weather turns serious. Stay tuned and stay safe.
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Gail Dalmat
7:30 PM family in Geneseo got “WARNING–take cover in basement . . . until 8:15! So that’s where it weather is right now.