Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Issued: 10:45 AM
Expires: Noon
Showers and thunderstorms along the warm front have increased this morning, making a broken connection between the Lake Ontario and Ohio areas of storms that I mentioned in this morning’s post. This possibility was outlined as one of the potential scenarios which could place a limit on the afternoon activity.
The atmosphere ahead of these showers and storms does not have a lot of fuel available for immediate intensification, but a general slow uptick in coverage should be expected. As this activity reaches the eastern FLX and CNY areas toward midday, there may have been enough development to support some minimal severe threat. Earlier storms did produce some severe weather around Erie, PA… but the atmosphere was more supportive of severe weather there at the time than it is here currently.
I notice there is a moderately large area of rain behind the initial storms across southwestern NY and northwestern PA, spreading east-northeast. The prolonged cloudiness and rain could be a real limiting factor on our potential for the afternoon. Some of the short-term models that hint at this area of rain do show it weakening by the time it reaches our easter regions, though.
As always, this situation will continue to evolve and change. I am constantly monitoring and will continue to post updates as needed.
One final unrelated note: air quality is a bit worse today than was anticipated with most areas in the Level 3/Orange/Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Level 2/Yellow/Moderate zones.
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