The weather will be fairly quiet across the Finger Lakes on Wednesday.
There are a number of weak, ill defined features on the weather map this morning. First is a front that is stalled out near the north shore of Lake Ontario. This front will lift north a bit today, but its only impact on our weather is that we are on the warm side of the front. Temperatures this morning are mostly in the mid and upper 30s and highs today should reach the low and mid 40s.
An area of precipitation across the Midwest is moving into the Great Lakes as some colder air pushes east. Meanwhile, another area of showers across the South will lift north during the day as well. By the late in the afternoon and evening, these areas will spread some showers in the Finger Lakes as well.
This shower activity should be light and mostly done by midnight. Cooler air will start to work in after temperatures remain steady during the first part of the evening. Lows Thursday morning will be in the low and mid 30s, with only a couple of degrees of warming during the day.
Lake effect snow will start to develop off of both Great Lakes on Thursday. Initially, the lake effect will be disorganized with mediocre conditions. Thursday night and Friday, however, the lake effect should intensify and organize. Several inches may fall across the southern half of the Finger Lakes from the snow band off of Lake Erie.
At this time, it looks like the lake effect will weaken a bit on Saturday before strengthening again later Saturday into Sunday. The lake effect should end by Monday as high pressure builds in.
Looking longer, most forecast models now agree that a shot of arctic cold will move into the eastern United States by the middle of the month. The main question then becomes how long this will last. Some models indicate warmer weather by February, while others maintain the cold weather through the majority of the winter.
This is not a surprise to me, and the colder scenarios are in line with my winter weather forecast. While I do not think anyone anticipated December being quite this mild, I did say winter would get off to a late start, mostly coming after the New Year. While it may be difficult to get the overall December-March temperature two degrees below normal after such a warm December, I think the overall idea of my winter forecast is shaping up nicely- which is good news for those of you waiting for the snow to come.
