Thunderstorms will develop over the Finger Lakes during the midday hours before becoming severe further east.
A disturbance tracking across the region will be the focal point for the development of thunderstorms today. Showers will be moving into Western New York this morning and should be pushing into the far western Finger lakes by 10 am. There is very little instability in the atmosphere ahead of these showers to suggest they will strengthen much this morning.
By the late morning and midday hours, these showers will enter into the heart of the Finger Lakes region. Some modest amounts of instability may exist, which will help some thunderstorms to start developing. However, the instability will mostly be east of the Finger Lakes, where thunderstorms should quickly develop into a line this afternoon with scattered reports of damaging winds.
It is not totally out of the question that one or two storms become stronger while still in the Finger Lakes region. Generally though, severe weather will be hard to come by in our area. Most places will only see a light amount of rain, with higher amounts further east in the thunderstorms.
There may be a few additional showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon, especially for the western Finger Lakes. The above threat map does not account for those storms, but generally speaking, they are not expected to be widespread or too strong.
With storms to our east by the early afternoon and only an isolated storm late in the day, much of the afternoon will be sunny and warm across the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, with highs mostly in the mid 80s.
A few scattered showers and maybe a storm will be possible on Friday as the cold front sweeps through. Temperatures should still reach the mid 80s before the front clears the area. The weekend is looking nice, with jsut a stray shower early Saturday morning. Temperatures Saturday will be in the mid and upper 70s, with low and mid 80s Sunday.
Due to the threat for strong thunderstorms today, I will delay my weekly drought report until either this evening or Friday morning.