Cold temperatures and strong winds will combine to produce hazardous wind chills this weekend, especially on Saturday. Lake effect snow will follow today’s widespread snow ahead of the cold front, lingering into Sunday.
Friday Afternoon and Evening
What: Widespread snow
Impacts: Low→Medium
After a quiet morning with just a few flurries, widespread snow will gradually overspread the region this afternoon. For some eastern areas, the snow may not start to fall steadily until the late afternoon.
During the daytime hours, with temperatures well into the 20s, many main roads should remain in good shape with most of the snow falling lightly. Daytime accumulations will be an inch or less.
Snow intensity will pick up a bit during the evening, and with the loss of daylight, roads will be more likely to become snowy. Road conditions will likely vary based on traffic load and treatment plans. Embedded squalls, especially late in the evening, will make for periods of worse travel. Evening snow accumulations will be 1-3 inches.
Winds will remain light until the cold front arrives in the late evening to around midnight.
Overnight Friday through Saturday Night
What: Hazardous wind chills, lake effect snow
Impacts: High
Once the cold front passes through, temperatures will quickly drop through the 10s and into the single digits. Temperatures will then remain in the 0s throughout the day. Winds will become northwesterly with speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts over 40 mph, also persisting through the day. This combination will produce wind chills as low as -25 to -30 in some areas. The exact wind chills at any given location will be a product of how open to the wind the location is. Trees, buildings, and terrain can all shelter a location, resulting in less-cold wind chills. Frostbite in under 30 minutes is a risk in open areas.
Lake effect snow will also develop immediately in the wake of the front and will continue through the day. The snow will be a widespread spray south-southeast of Lake Ontario, but some areas will see heavier or more persistent snow than others. The highest accumulations, on the order of 4-8 inches, will be north of the Thruway in Wayne and Cayuga counites, and over some of the higher elevations east of Cayuga Lake and possibly in the Bristol Hills. The lowest accumulations, under an inch, will be across the Southern Tier.
Cayuga Lake may also add in some influence at times, which could result in slightly higher amounts south-southeast of Cayuga Lake. These areas have seen Cayuga Lake effect snow the last two weekends.
The strong winds will create blowing and drifting snow region-wide, but especially in areas that see several inches on Saturday. Localized whiteouts will be possible.
The snow, wind, and cold temperatures will all act to keep roadways messy, especially in open areas.
Sunday
What: Lingering winds and snows
Impacts: Medium
Sunday will not be as cold, windy, or snowy as Saturday, but the improvements will not be complete.
Northwest gusts over 20 mph will still create areas of blowing snow and sub-zero wind chills. Lake effect snow will be more isolated and lighter, but still stubbornly hanging on throughout the day. Afternoon highs will only be around 10 degrees, making snow removal on the roads difficult.
The snow will center on Wayne, Seneca, and Cayuga counties, with some enhancement off the south end of Cayuga Lake also possible. Accumulations will be on the order of 1-3 inches of fluffy snow.
Monday
What: A few late snow showers
Impacts: Minimal
Temperatures will slowly being to moderate with highs Monday in the upper 10s. Most of the day looks quiet, but a small weather system may bring some snow showers in late in the day. Accumulations and impacts should be minimal. Winds will be light and variable.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds
Impacts: None
A quiet day is expected Tuesday with temperatures continuing to creep upward. Morning lows will be in the 10s and afternoon highs in the mid 20s.
Late Next Week & Beyond
Precipitation chances later next week are uncertain, but at least one weather system should pass through. Snow is mostly likely, but mixed or changing precipitation types will be possible. Temperatures on the models have come down some, with highs mainly in the 20s but also a chance for some 30s. Overall, though, there is just too much uncertainty with the pattern to get too specific.
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