Most of the weather over the next few days will be driven by small disturbances in the atmosphere associated with thunderstorm complexes, which leads to lower than average forecast confidence. That being said, most areas look dry today at least. It will remain mild and a bit muggy until some cooler, dry air builds in on Friday and Saturday. The weekend may be capped off with some late showers and storms on Sunday.
Published Tuesday, August 11
Tuesday
What: Mainly dry, a little sun.
Most of the area will remain dry today as the active storm track pushes further to our southwest. A stray shower or even an afternoon thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out, but would be most likely near the NY-PA state line. Clouds will be common today, but there should be some thin spots of some breaks in the clouds that allow some sunshine through.
Afternoon highs will mainly be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Dewpoints will be a bit lower, spending most of the day in the mid 60s then dropping to the low 60s late. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.
There is a small chance for a few showers tonight, again mainly over the southern parts of the region. Most model data keeps the rain south of the state-line, though. Overnight lows will reach the upper 50s and low 60s.
Wednesday
What: Sun and clouds. A couple showers or storms?
Weather models are split on the rain chances for tomorrow, with some showing little to nothing and others popping up some afternoon thunderstorms. Without a significant weather system to trigger the storms, the uncertainty is high and development would be dependent on small bundles of atmospheric energy.
I would expect a few scattered showers and weaker thunderstorms to pop up, but many places will probably stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds. The highest chance for rain will be in the mid to late afternoon.
Winds will remain from the northwest at 5-10 mph. Afternoon highs will be around 80 degrees with dewpoints retreating to around 60. Nighttime temperatures will drop back to the low 60s with some pockets reaching the upper 50s with partly cloudy to clear skies.
Thursday
What: Sun and clouds. A couple showers or storms?
The models paint a similar story for Thursday, with some showing showers and storms and others staying dry. Personally, I think the rain chances may end up higher on Thursday as a better defined frontal boundary moves into the area. This will have a chance for more widespread showers and storms, but only if the timing coincides favorably with the peak of the daytime heating cycle. Humidity levels may be a bit higher than on Wednesday as well, with dewpoints creeping back toward the mid 60s. Afternoon highs will remain in that upper 70s to around 80 degree range.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds.
Friday looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will turn to the north and increase to near or over 10 mph, dropping humidity levels and temperatures. Look for afternoon highs in the low 70s with dewpoints in the 50s. Clear skies and cool temperatures are likely Friday night with lows ranging through the low and mid 50s.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds.
Saturday is looking similar to Friday with cooler temperatures, low humidity, and a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be from the north around 5 mph, holding highs to the low 70s. After a period of calm winds during the evening, a light south wind will develop overnight. Still, lows will be well down into the 50s again.
Sunday
What: Late showers and storms?
South winds will become steady on Sunday with speeds around 10 mph. This will bring dewpoints back to around 60 degrees with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. A thunderstorm complex may approach the area late in the day or overnight, but this remains highly uncertain.
Monday
What: A few showers.
Unsettled weather looks possible on Monday, but remains highly uncertain. The morning will have a higher chance for rain, possibly associated with the aforementioned potential thunderstorm complex. More sporadic showers would be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures may increase slightly.
Next Week
Tuesday and Wednesday look to have the highest chances for rain-free days. Unsettled weather looks possible late in the week, but the details are unseeable this far out. Temperatures generally will remain in the 70s, but if a weather system passes through on the correct track, a brief spike in temperature and humidity would be possible.
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