A frontal boundary will gradually develop over the region, leading to some low chances for stray showers Tuesday night and Wednesday with a better chance for showers and storms on Thursday. This front will bring an increase in temperatures and humidity, especially Wednesday into Thursday. Cooler weather will prevail later in the week and into the weekend as the front passes. A few stray showers will also be possible this weekend, leading into a rainy start to next week.
Published Tuesday, September 15
Tuesday
What: Occasionally filtered sunshine.
Tuesday will also have sun and clouds, but instead of fair weather clouds, most of the cloud cover will come in thin sheets high in the atmosphere. Even when these clouds pass through, at least some sunshine should filter through. And at other times, it will be sunny. There is a very small chance for a couple drips of rain in the morning hours, but anything that falls will have a hard time reaching the ground and should be barely noticeable.
South winds will increase to around 10 mph, pushing temperatures up from the chilly start. Most areas should see highs in the low 70s, with mid 70s in the Genesee Valley and Rochester area. Some higher elevations, particularly around Cortland County, may not quite make it to 70 degrees.
Tuesday night may have a couple of stray showers, but most areas will likely stay dry. It will be a much warmer night with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Wednesday
What: A few showers.
As temperatures and humidity levels continue to increase, a few showers will pop up on Wednesday at any point during the day. A stray rumble of afternoon thunder cannot be ruled out, either. The precipitation does not look overly widespread at this point.
Outside of any of these stray showers, expect cloud with some sun mixing in at times. South winds will be around 5 mph in the morning, but the wind may turn calm or light from the northwest by the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 70s for most. Dewpoints will become muggy, reaching the mid and upper 60s. The increase in humidity will keep it mild at night with lows in the mid 60s. A few nighttime showers cannot be ruled out.
Thursday
What: Scattered showers and storms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely on Thursday at any point during the day. It should not rain all day, though. A few downpours could lead to localized rain amounts around or over an inch, but most areas will probably see less. Temperatures will remain in the mid 70s. Humidity will increase further and become quite noticeable with dewpoints approaching 70.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds.
Friday looks dry and sunny with a few fair weather clouds. Winds will be out of the north, removing the humidity and bringing cooler air in. Highs will be in the upper 60s. Overnight lows will then fall to the upper 40s and low 50s.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds.
At this time, Saturday morning looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Saturday afternoon may see an increase in clouds and a few stray showers. Winds will be light from the east, holding afternoon highs generally in the mid 60s.
Sunday
What: A few showers
Scattered showers will be a bit more likely on Sunday, but these look hit-or-miss and many areas will likely be dry through the day. Winds will turn to the southeast with highs a couple degrees warmer than Saturday in the upper 60s.
Monday
What: Periods of rain. Some thunder?
Rain looks likely on Monday, though the details are unclear this far in advance. Some models bring in heavy rainfall amounts, so it will be something to watch over the coming days. Temperatures will likely remain cool in the 60s.
Mid Next Week
Rain may linger into the middle part of next week, but eventually, conditions should dry out. The end of next week looks quieter than the beginning with early indications for a possibly dry final weekend of September. Temperatures may then settle into a new pattern where mid and upper 60s dominate the high temperatures and warm days are when it manages to get to 70 degrees.
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