Temperatures this weekend will stay in the 60s for afternoon highs, setting a new precedent of what we can expect for the foreseeable future. Saturday should be dry, but Sunday may turn out to be quite rainy, especially through the morning hours. Next week’s weather is highly uncertain as far as rain goes, but temperatures will remain cool.
Published Friday, September 18
Friday
What: Sun and clouds
Dry air associated with high pressure is building into the Finger Lakes early Friday morning. Lingering clouds will be replaced with sunshine, which should then persist for the rest of the day with just a few clouds mixing in. Winds will be breezy out of the north at around 10 mph, removing the humidity and bringing cooler air in. Highs will be in the upper 60s with a few urban areas hitting 70 degrees.
Clear skies and mostly calm winds overnight will send temperatures down into the 40s for all but perhaps a few immediate lakeshores. The coldest pockets may see low 40s, while most areas stay between 45-50 degrees.
Saturday
What: Sun, increasing clouds
Saturday morning looks dry with sunny skies. Thin clouds will pass through from time to time. These clouds will gradually become more widespread and thicker through the afternoon. A stray spit of rain over the western Southern Tier toward sunset may be possible, but the majority of the area will be dry throughout the day. Winds will be light from the east, holding afternoon highs generally in the mid 60s.
Scattered showers will be possible overnight, especially over the southern half of the region after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the low and mid 50s.
Sunday
What: A period of rain
Forecast confidence begins to erode away by Sunday due to a lack of consistency among the models. However, rain is looking fairly likely for the morning and perhaps first half of the afternoon on Sunday. This rain would be widespread and locally heavy with a few places seeing over an inch of rainfall. A little sun at the end of the day is still possible. Afternoon highs will be in the low 60s, though some higher elevations may not reach 60 degrees.
Dry weather is expected Sunday night with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Monday
What: Clouds, some sun
Monday will most likely end up dry, but the forecast remains uncertain as Sunday’s weather system lingers in the area. Some sun may be possible, but clouds will mix in thoroughly at a minimum. Temperatures will remain in the low 60s for highs. then fall back into the upper 40s at night.
Tuesday-Thursday
What: Uncertain rain chances
Disagreement on the models about the mid-week period is high. Some models bring in another batch of widespread, potentially heavy rain. Others have frequent showers. And yet others keep all of the rain just outside of the area with varying degrees of sunshine.
Regardless of the rainfall, temperatures will hold in the 60s at most. Tuesday in particular may be cool with highs in the 50s.
Depending on how this all evolves, there is at least a chance for excessive rainfall on the order of 3-6 inches between Sunday and Thursday. This looks more likely to out south, but will be something to watch for.
Next Weekend
Rain chances toward next weekend are also uncertain, but more so in the typical “this is too far out to tell much” vein. Temperatures will likely remain in the 60s.
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