Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026, 5:15 PM
Post expires at 10 PM.
In my post on Friday, I explained how warmer air aloft can change the how snowflakes develop, and identified this as one of the key factors in how much snow we might see:
“Warm air aloft can change the entire structure of snowflakes away from the classic star-shaped flakes that can pile up quickly, to flatter, more column-like, or needle-like structures that accumulate slower.”
At least at my house in Groton, I’ve noticed the snowflakes have consistently been small and the fallen snow has an icy, almost sandy consistency.
Looking at some NYS Mesonet data that samples the air above the surface, where the air is most saturated, it is also warmer than it needs to be for big, fluffy snowflake development.
The image I included on Friday and have again here shows how drastically snowflake structure can change with varying temperatures and humidity levels.
We are still on track for most places seeing a solid foot or more of snow… but those higher amounts of 18+ (which were always going to be restricted to isolated pockets) are looking less likely unless we can get some larger snowflake development.
I hope everyone is staying warm and safe today. I’ll have a Monday Weather Planner post later this evening for your planning purposes for tomorrow.
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