Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Issued: 2:15 PM
Expires: 5 PM
Showers and thunderstorms from the morning and midday hours have moved east. As expected, there has been a rapid uptick in severity of the storms with several tornado warnings. This has prompted a broader tornado watch for areas east of the Finger Lakes.
Meanwhile, the atmospheric set up for severe weather in the Finger Lakes has been severely limited by the rain and clouds. There is very little remaining instability, which is the atmospheric fuel necessary for storm development and growth.
Some recovery of the atmosphere should take place, but I am skeptical it will be enough to provide much severe weather in our area. This is backed up by several of the most recent short-term models, which show the activity currently near and west of Buffalo significantly weakening as it heads east.
This is exactly as I described in Scenario 1 from this morning’s update.
I will continue to monitor the radar and latest trends should conditions become more conducive for thunderstorms in our area.
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