An area of low pressure will pass north of the Finger Lakes today, pulling a warm front and then a cold front through the area.
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Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and between the fronts, some of which will be severe thanks to strong wind fields in the atmosphere.
Here are the latest details on what is expected:
Event Overview
Today’s set up has some similarities to this past Saturday, but also some substantial differences. Between the two days, it will likely be the case that Saturday will be the higher impact day. There are several important factors working to limit today’s event. While it is possible that these are overcome, especially on a local scale, the chances for a miss with little to no severe weather in the Finger Lakes is equally likely.
The main concern will be clusters of storms that organize into line segments, producing swaths of damaging winds. Supercells embedded within these line segments will bring a small tornado and hail risk.
However, storms may stay weaker and more isolated due to limits on the atmosphere’s ability to sustain rapid thunderstorm growth, leading to a more isolated severe risk.
This balancing of the scales between favorable and unfavorable factors is common in severe weather forecasting for our region. Due to the immense complexities of thunderstorm development, it is always a bit of a guess which side will win out. Over 20 years of forecasting these events, I know that the computer models are only so useful and are just as likely to completely miss the reality as they are to correctly identify it.
That is why it is important to be weather aware in situations like this, knowing the potential exists, having a plan if severe weather threatens, but not being overwhelmed by anxiety or surprised if things fizzle out or if your area is missed.
Storm Timing
Thunderstorms and severe weather will be possible any time from late this morning through this afternoon, but especially late in the day.
At 7:30 AM, there were two areas of thunderstorms along the warm front: one moving over western Lake Ontario, the other crossing Ohio. The thing to watch for the later morning and midday will be if there is further development between these two areas of Lake Erie and western New York. At least one model this morning hints at this, bringing a line of storms through the area during the midday hours and then little else the rest of the afternoon.
However, if the warm front moves through with little to no precipitation, the environment will be more favorable for development later in the day. This scenario has a greater chance for bringing some severe storms to our area, especially between 3-7 PM.
There are some models, however, that initiate the storm development ahead of the cold front too late when the atmosphere has cooled. This third scenario would bring some rain and weaker thunderstorms in during the early evening hours with the main severe weather event unfolding to our east associated with the warm front.
So, which scenario do I think is most likely? A combo of two and three.
I think the warm front will move through during the later morning hours with minimal precipitation, except perhaps along and north of I-90. As the front moves east, I expect further development over eastern New York. I also expect scattered thunderstorms to develop over our area during the mid to late afternoon, bringing a more isolated severe threat. There is certainly still potential for these storms to organize themselves into lines with swaths of wind damage, but I think this is a bit less likely than it was on Saturday.
Bottom line: Stay weather aware throughout the day, but especially in that mid to late afternoon window of 3-7 PM.
Storm Severity
As mentioned… and as is usually the case… damaging winds will be the primary threat today. Localized microbursts will be possible which can cause significant damage in small areas, producing winds of 75-90 mph. Outside of any of these concentrated areas, tree damage and power outages will be more sporadic. Most thunderstorms will be accompanied or preceded by gusty winds.
Wind profiles are favorable for storm rotation, which could lead to an isolated tornado or two. As with the overwhelming majority of the tornadoes in our history, any spin ups would likely be on the low end of the scale with winds in that same 75-90 mph range. The chances for a stronger tornado cannot be dismissed, but they are rare.
Given their similar wind speeds and resultant damage, the threat from a microburst, which is both more common and spread over a larger area, is greater than the threat for a tornado. Both severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings should be taken seriously.
Hail is a lesser threat today. Most storms will not contain hail, but one or two may be able to briefly produce hail up to quarter or ping-pong ball size.
Flash flooding is a relatively low threat today as well. Despite the heavy rain on Saturday, today’s storms are expected to be progressive with much less repeated “training”, where the same area gets hit by multiple storms. Still, the atmosphere is primed for heavy rain, so some localized minor water issues are possible.
Lightning is always a hazard with any thunderstorm. I expect today’s storms to have a moderate, but not excessive amount of lightning.
Further Updates
My automated warning system creates posts for every severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warning within 2 minutes of its issuance. These will be automatically posted in this post and on the FLX Weather homepage. Within this same update section, I will post occasional updates before in the ramp up to the event, and through the event if things remain on the lower end of severity.
If a more significant severe weather event begins to unfold, I will activate a live blog like I did on Saturday. This will allow me to rapidly give expert analysis on a storm-by-storm basis throughout the event. At this time, I am unsure if this afternoon will warrant a live blog or not. Make sure you are on the email list to receive notification of any live blogs, important updates, and my daily forecasts, or be sure to visit FLXweather.com frequently throughout the day.
As always, my aim is to keep you informed in a way that you can navigate around the weather with confidence and calmness. If you found this post helpful, please share it with others in the Finger Lakes. My experience-based no-hype approach to weather forecasting does not have the glitz and glimmer that will get it viral status on the social media networks, so I rely on your help to spread the word.
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