A storm system will bring some scattered showers Thursday and early Friday.
Scattered, Light Rain Amounts
Unfortunately for the Finger Lakes, the incoming system will not bring much precipitation to the area. Most areas will probably see no more than a quarter of an inch of new rain, if even that.
Wednesday will be sunny and dry across the Finger Lakes, but southerly winds between the incoming system and high pressure off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic will push warmer, more humid air northward. While it will be far from oppressively humid today, it will not feel as refreshing as it has earlier this week.
Temperatures should reach the low and mid 80s today, with a few of the normally warmer areas reaching the upper 80s.
The chances for rain will start to increase Thursday morning. Scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will push through the Finger Lakes out ahead of the front. This will probably be the best chance for widespread precipitation, but the amounts will be quite light.
The front itself will start to arrive after sunset Thursday. Some more scattered showers will develop, but will probably not amount to very much at all. A couple showers could linger into Friday morning before the front clears the region.
Summer Far From Over
This cold front will have little impact on our temperature. The humidity will drop a little bit, but will remain higher than it was early this week.
Temperatures on Friday will be in the low and mid 80s, with highs near 80 on Saturday. Sunday looks hot though, with temperatures pushing back towards or above 90 degrees for many areas.
The weather pattern will remain favorable for above normal temperatures through the end of the month and likely beyond.
As August turns into September, temperatures in the Finger Lakes should be in the mid 70s on average. Instead, we will likely continue to see temperatures well into the 80s.
I wanted to also do a quick follow up on my post yesterday, which focused on the increase in tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
Specifically, the tropical wave targeting the Bahamas and potentially Florida is becoming increasingly concerning. While many models do not develop this system, the European is consistently showing significant tropical development, both before and after a possible impact in Florida.
This is the same model that had a near perfect forecast for Hurricane Sandy days in advance, while the rest of the models remained clueless. I place much more trust in the Euro than any other model when it comes to hurricanes (and just about everything else.)
The Euro leaves little doubt that a system will develop and impact south Florida by the weekend. The strength of that system is questionable, but a weak hurricane is not out of the question. Of more concern is what happens when the system enters the Gulf of Mexico. Rapid development into a strong hurricane could occur.
The track of the system remains very much in question after that, but there are some runs of the European ensemble that take the storm further west, towards the central Gulf Coast and then north well inland. There is every possibility that rain from this *could* eventually reach our area.
You will very likely start to hear more and more about this system in the coming days. Comparisons to Katrina will inevitably be thrown around, and there is some merit to them based on the possible paths. Please remember though that hurricane forecasts are typically extremely iffy more than a couple of days in advance and there is a lot of time for things to change. Spread facts, not hype, and stick with Finger Lakes Weather for more updates on this system as it continues to evolve over the next 5-10 days.