Cool weather will settle in for the first few days of September, but summer is not over yet.
Cooler weather this week
The weather this week can easily be divided into two distinct periods: Monday through Wednesday, and Thursday through Saturday. Ironically, the division coincides with the changing of the month from August to September. In the meteorological world, this is also the changing of the seasons, with meteorological autumn beginning on September 1.
The first half of the week will have temperatures near or just above normal. Monday will be the coolest day, with highs in the upper 70s.
The slightly cooler start to the week will be the result of a combination of morning clouds, a steady northwest wind and an area of high pressure. Dry air should erode the clouds away by the early afternoon, allowing for a sunny end to the day.
Clear skies and calm winds overnight will result in temperatures Tuesday morning starting in the 50s. Bright, sun filled skies should boost turn those morning lows into mild afternoon highs in the low 80s.
Low 80s will be as hot as it gets this week, as a cold front will move through Wednesday. Temperatures may get into the low 80s during Wednesday afternoon before showers and thunderstorms move through ushering in the second distinct weather pattern.
While also dry and sunny, temperatures will be much cooler for the start of September. Highs on both Thursday and Friday will be in the low 70s at best. Saturday will be a touch warmer, but still below normal in the mid 70s.
Summer not over
This will be but a brief taste of below normal temperatures. As high pressure moves east of the region, the temperature will jump again on southerly winds for Sunday and Labor Day.
Currently, Sunday is expected to top out in the low 80s, with mid 80s on Labor Day. This will likely need some adjusting, but the pattern for above normal temperatures will persist well beyond Labor Day.
In fact, it seems plausible that daily high temperatures will remain in the 80s for much of next week and possibly into the middle of September. This will be some 5 to 15 degrees above normal. By September 10th, the average high in both Geneva and Ithaca is just 73 degrees.
While less certain, there is every possibility that above normal temperatures will continue throughout much of September. Still, summer cannot hold on forever, and the chances for more 90 degree days will continue to wane.
Tropics remain active
The Tropical Atlantic remains very active as the hurricane season nears its peak on September 10th.
As of Monday morning, there are three organized systems: Major Hurricane Gaston, Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Depress Nine.
Gaston is by far the most impressive system as a category three hurricane. Gaston is also in the middle of the Atlantic and is no threat to land.
The two tropical depressions, meanwhile, are both a threat to the United States.Tropical Depression Eight is located off the coast of the Carolinas and should drift northwest towards the Outer Banks over the next two days. Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the Outer Banks for what should be a glancing blow before the system recurves to the northeast. This system, not the one in the Gulf of Mexico, should reach tropical storm status first and would be named Hermine.
Tropical Depression Nine, which has been a concern for a week now, is entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a poorly organized system. Conditions should become favorable for at least a tropical storm in the coming days. Assuming the Carolina storm is named Hermine, this system would be named Ian. Confidence remains low on the track and especially the intensity of this system.
Another tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa later tonight. This system will have a long journey across the Atlantic Ocean, but strong high pressure to the north could keep this system on a westward track towards land this weekend or early next week. It is too early to say what will become of this system, but the European model consistently shows development. Keep an eye on this system over the coming week.