Very light icing possible ahead of warm surge Monday

Most of the region will see very little to no ice accumulation, but even a thin coating can be slippery.

Freezing Rain and Freezing Drizzle

There is a small potential for some slippery travel conditions Monday morning due to spotty light freezing rain and freezing drizzle.

A surge of warm air is pushing into the Finger Lakes region, but cold air is locked in at the surface. Since warm air is less dense than cold air, the warm air is being forced to rise up and over the colder air.

This rising motion will help a few showers and some patchy drizzle to develop this morning. This precipitation will be very light, and many areas will see very little to no discernible precipitation.

The warm air will gradually erode the cold air at the surface away. The speed at which this happens will partly depend on location, but generally speaking, temperatures will warm quickest further west.

Until the temperature rises about 32 degrees, any precipitation that falls will likely be freezing rain and drizzle. This precipitation will look like rain, but once it hits the surface, it will freeze into a thin coating of ice. Even though precipitation amounts will be minimal, even a thin coating can cause slippery conditions.

Please be aware of road conditions while traveling and beware of patches of black ice.

Temperatures Rise Through the Evening

Gusty south winds will continue to pump warm air into the Finger Lakes through the afternoon and evening hours. By sun set, temperatures will range from the upper 40s for places near and west of Rochester, to around 40 degrees across much of the Southern Tier and far eastern Finger Lakes.

Rain showers will continue to be spotty through the afternoon before increasing in coverage and intensity this evening as a cold front draws near. Precipitation amounts will remain generally light, but a few briefly heavier showers may be possible.

The temperature over much of the Finger Lakes will continue to rise this evening. Far northwestern areas will remain in the upper 40s, though a few places could briefly hit 50 degrees. Most of the remainder of the Finger Lakes will warm to similar temperatures. The higher elevations of the southeastern Finger Lakes will mostly remain in the mid 40s.
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Cold Front Sets Up Minor Lake Snows

After midnight, a cold front will slide through the Finger Lakes. Rain showers will decrease, and so will the temperatures.

By sun up Tuesday morning, most areas will be hovering within a few degrees on either side of 40 degrees. The temperature will continue to slide back through the 30s during the course of the day, with temperatures at sun down about 10 degrees cooler than the morning temperatures.

There will be a bit of a response from the Great Lakes to this cooler air. Lake effect snow should develop later Tuesday afternoon east of the Great Lakes. For the Finger Lakes, this will mean snow showers from Lake Erie which will become better organized Tuesday evening and into Tuesday night.

Initially, the northern Finger Lakes will have the best chance for a coating to an inch or two of snow, but the band will push south through the night and dissipate as winds turn to the northwest.

Some snow off of Lake Ontario will briefly be possible over the northeastern Finger Lakes Wednesday morning before it too dissipates. This will mostly be for areas from eastern Wayne County towards Syracuse.

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