Mostly Dry Mid-Week Weather
Tuesday is off to a dreary start across the Finger Lakes, but some gradual improvement is expected over the next couple of days.
The same low pressure system that has brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to the region the last two days is slowly drifting southeast as it decays this morning.
This low is still producing some scattered showers Tuesday morning, especially in the southeastern Finger Lakes. These showers are light and will not produce any flooding.
Rain showers will gradually diminish this morning. While a spotty shower will remain possible this afternoon, tonight, and even into Wednesday, the vast majority of the region will remain dry through this time.
Clouds will likely remain thick throughout Tuesday. With a cool northwest flow, high temperatures this afternoon will stick in the mid 60s for most of the region.
More in the way of sun is expected on Wednesday, but the clouds will remain stubborn as well. Expect more clouds than sun early Wednesday with partly cloudy skies at best Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures Wednesday will be warmer, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
Watching the Next System
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An area of low pressure far to the north over Canada will drape a front southeast towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. A second area of low pressure is expected to develop along this boundary over the Midwest.
A few rain showers may pop up during the afternoon hours on Thursday with the front situated just to the north of the region and temperatures pushing near or above 80 degrees. These showers should be scattered and generally light.
The secondary low pressure will track east Thursday night with an area of heavy rain just to its north. The European model has been showing this heavy rain moving across the Finger Lakes, but in its latest run, took the heavy rain south into Pennsylvania. This is in better agreement with most other models.
While it is encouraging to see the European jump south, I will not be confident in that scenario until it starts to show more consistently.
Still, even with this scenario, rain showers would be likely Thursday night into at least early Friday. These showers would be light though and would cause no problems.
Should the heavy rain cross the Finger Lakes though, there would be the potential for widespread rainfall amounts of at least 1-3 inches, which would likely cause significant, widespread flooding.
High Pressure for the Weekend and Beyond
Whatever happens later this week, there is good news ahead for the weekend.
A large, sprawling area of high pressure will build in from the northwest behind the late week storm system. This will bring a stretch of dry, sunny weather to the Finger Lakes region.
Temperatures will be a bit cool on Saturday as fresh cool air works in between the storm system and this high pressure. Temperatures should rebound quickly though, with near normal temperatures Sunday and into early next week.
The dry, sunny weather should persist well into next week. Additional rain does not start showing up on the models again until next Thursday, meaning we could put together a string of 5 or 6 dry, sunny days in a row.