Back to Summer for Labor Day
Summer is not quite ready to completely give up control of the weather and will make a brief appearance once more for Labor Day today.
Skies are sunny across the Finger Lakes and a blustery southwest wind is pumping warm air north.
This will result in temperatures quickly warming through the 60s and 70s this morning.
High temperatures this afternoon will end up a couple of degrees on either side of 80, depending on location and topography.
Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible throughout the day.
Otherwise, it will be sunny with a few fair weather clouds and some high, thin cirrus clouds. No rain is expected through sunset.
Cold Front Has Other Plans
Another strong cold front will approach the area tonight and should be east of the Finger Lakes by Tuesday morning.
A few thunderstorms will make their way into western New York this evening and may linger as far east as the I-390 corridor. Some frequent lightning, gusty winds, and/or small hail may be possible for those areas, mostly between 9 pm and midnight.
As the storms move east into the Finger Lakes, they should diminish with mostly rain showers across our region. Most of the rain will move in around or after midnight.
The front will slow down and only gradually creep east on Tuesday. Showers will likely linger through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon as a result.
The warm temperatures of Monday will be long gone, with most of Tuesday sticking in the 60s. A little sun late in the afternoon could briefly boost temperatures to near or just above 70 degrees.
Cool, showery weather will settle in for the remainder of the week. High temperatures will stick in the 60s starting Wednesday and likely persisting through next weekend.
Showers will be a daily nuisance Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday before the weather dries out for the weekend.
Watching Hurricane Irma
For the past week, the weather hype machine has been working overtime on Hurricane Irma. Fake news stories, photoshopped National Hurricane Center graphics, and irresponsible hype have run rampant on social media.
At this time, we are still 6-9 days away from Irma being a threat to the United States. A LOT can change in that time.
Currently, there is actually impressive agreement among the models through the next 5 days. By Friday, Irma should be moving into the Bahamas as a major hurricane.
However, it remains very unclear whether Irma will make a direct hit to the United States, skirt along the coast, or take a sharp turn to the northeast, missing the United States completely.
It will likely be a few more days until this becomes clear. It is not time to buy into any specific landfall forecasts yet, so think twice before hitting the share button on the latest impressive looking model graphic that gets posted on Facebook.
As for potential impacts here in the Finger Lakes, it is way, way too early to know. Many of the long range model ensemble paths do bring the remains of Irma towards our region, but there is zero confidence in that happening at this time.
IF, and that is a big if, Irma makes any impact in our region, it would likely not be until the middle or end of next week.