Cold Front Brings Showers
A cold front brought rain and thunderstorms to the Finger Lakes overnight and has nearly stalled out over Central New York.
Scattered areas of rain and thunder continue this morning across the Finger Lakes as the front lingers nearby.
A few heavier downpours may be embedded within generally lighter rain showers. The rain should become a bit less widespread early this afternoon before mostly moving east for the latter part of the day.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
The front will make it to eastern New York before stalling out completely. An area of low pressure riding up along the front will throw some showers back towards the Finger Lakes on Wednesday. The extent of these showers and their westward reach is a bit uncertain, but at least a few spits of rain are likely on Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday also look rather showery as the low pressure associated with this front slowly meanders eastward. It is too early to say with much certainty whether the region will clear out in time for the weekend.
Temperatures Back Below Normal
The warm up on Monday was simply a one-day affair as temperatures will settle back well below normal for the remainder of this week.
Temperatures will ultimately depend on the ratio of rain-to-sun over the next few days, but should generally be in the mid to upper 60s.
This is about 7-10 degrees below normal for early September, which should be in the mid 70s.
The core of the cold is likely to settle in for Friday and Saturday, when high temperatures may not even be able to reach 60 degrees.
A gradual warming trend is expected beyond that with highs closer to, but still below normal.
Hurricane Irma UpdateHurricane Irma underwent significant strengthening on Monday and, as of 8 am Tuesday morning, is a very dangerous category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 175 mph.
Numerous hurricanes have reached winds of 175 mph, but only six in the Atlantic Ocean have had stronger winds. The record is 190 mph winds with Hurricane Alan in 1980.
The models continue to show surprisingly good agreement on the track for the next 4-5 days, taking Irma just north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Most models then show Irma taking a sharp turn towards the North.
Currently, that turn takes Irma into western Florida. Yesterday, the turn was in eastern Florida.
Given how far out this is and the continued westward trend, I would not be surprised to see the models push Irma further west over the coming days, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico.
It still remains too early to say with much certainty where Irma will go beyond Hispaniola and Cuba. A landfall along the east coast is looking less likely but is not completely removed from the realm of possibility. Florida should be nervous, as should the Gulf Coast.
People in these areas should already have a hurricane plan in place and should be making additional plans of action should Irma threaten.